The threat of regime change in Iran has intensified in recent years, with security concerns escalating following recent Israeli strikes on Tehran.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently hinted at a regime change in Tehran being on the horizon.
Beyond Iran’s involvement in state-sponsored terrorism, its nuclear ambitions, its growing ties with Western adversaries, and its direct attacks on Israel, factors within Iran itself could contribute to the downfall of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
A new analysis by the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) suggests that Tehran’s oppressive policies toward its own minority groups could be a key factor in the regime’s demise.
Himdad Mustafa, a MEMRI researcher and expert on Iranian and Kurdish affairs, argues that minority groups, comprising roughly 50% of Iran’s population, are uniquely positioned to unite against the regime despite facing severe oppression, often living in conditions he describes as “open-air prisons.”
Mustafa highlights the potential role of ethnic minority groups like the Kurds, who represent 10%-15% of Iran’s population and inhabit border regions near Iraq and Turkey, and the Baloch people, who constitute about 5% of the population and reside along Iran’s border with Pakistan.
“If the whole country rises up, the regime will withdraw its forces from border regions like Kurdistan to central Iran and Tehran,” he wrote in a recent report. “That is the time when the West should support the Kurds, Balochs, and other ethnic groups to topple the regime.”
The expert told Digital that these minority groups reside in resource-rich areas strategically important not only to Iran but also to its adversaries, Russia and China.
“If there is prolonged war and instability inside Iran, countries like Turkey, Russia, and China would intervene, either directly or through proxies, to seize territories in Iran they consider important for their national interests,” Mustafa said.
The expert explained that Beijing has long viewed Balochistan, which borders Pakistan and Afghanistan, as a strategic region for its Belt and Road Initiative.
“In the case of a regime change in Iran it’s highly likely China would intervene in Iranian Balochistan to prevent the establishment of a Baloch state and to secure the region for their interests,” Mustafa said. “Therefore, the U.S. should support these minorities both militarily and politically to secure their regions, which would, in turn, protect the interest of the West.
“If Balochistan remains under the control of U.S.-backed Baloch forces, they could safeguard the interests of the U.S. and its mega project the India-Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor,” he said.
Mustafa notes a rising concern among Iranian political elites about the potential for a “hybrid war,” a scenario where internal dissent coincides with external military threats.
While the 2022 mass protests were brutally suppressed by the regime, they exposed the widespread discontent across Iran.
The death of Jina Amini, a Kurdish woman arrested by Iran’s morality police in September 2022 and later died in custody, sparked outrage over the institutional discrimination against women in Iran and fueled a wave of protests.
Just days after the initial protests erupted, one of the most violent incidents occurred in Iranian Balochistan, where the Baloch people took to the streets in the city of Zahedan to protest the alleged rape of a 15-year-old girl by police commander Col. Ebrahim Khouchakzai.
The event, known as “Bloody Friday” or the “Zahedan Massacre,” turned violent after the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps intervened to quell the demonstrations, resulting in the deaths of over 100 people, many of whom were unarmed.
Despite the inherent dangers of opposing the regime, Mustafa emphasizes the enduring desire among minority groups to unite and overthrow it.
“They have a common enemy that persecutes, imprisons, and executes them, and even denies minority students the right to education in their mother tongues,” he said. “This has led them to view their fight for self-determination as a common struggle for national liberation against this common enemy, and this shared struggle is what unites these minority groups.”