As Kamala Harris enters the race for the presidency, national security experts are casting their gaze towards the United States’ primary adversaries. Concerns are growing that authoritarian leaders from nations like Russia, China, and Iran may exploit the “chaos” resulting from the sudden change in the Democratic front-runner to their advantage, particularly with the upcoming presidential elections against Republican candidate Donald Trump.
While Russia and China have maintained a guarded silence about their reactions to the impending end of a Biden White House and the potential implications for U.S. military posture overseas, experts are keeping a close watch on their activities.
“The elections are still four months away, and that is a long period of time in which a lot can change. We need to be patient and carefully monitor what happens. The priority for us is the special military operation,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Sunday, referring to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
He also told reporters in a conference call that Moscow was “not very surprised” by Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential ticket.
“In recent years, what has been happening in the United States has taught us not to be surprised by anything,” Peskov said, according to Reuters.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning took an even more cautious approach, stating, “The presidential elections are the United States’ own affairs.
“We have no comment on that,” she added in a press conference on Monday.
Over the past 24 hours, questions have arisen concerning the implications for U.S. national security amidst escalating global tensions, reaching levels unseen since the Cold War.
“The Russians are watching very closely whether Kamala Harris will actually end up becoming the Democratic Party’s nominee now that President Biden has dropped out of the race,” Rebekah Koffler, former DIA intelligence officer and author of “Putin’s Playbook,” told Digital.
Recent reports citing U.S. intelligence officials have suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin might favor a Trump presidency. However, international security officials have expressed skepticism when asked by Digital whether Moscow truly has a preference for one candidate over the other.
“Putin and the Kremlin have no preference as far as who would become U.S. president because U.S. policy has been consistent for the past 40 years, regardless [of whether] a Republican or Democrat occupied the White House,” she said.
Experts are already analyzing how the sudden changes in the 2024 presidential election will be leveraged by key adversaries. Koffler noted that “the Russian press is erupting with coverage of Vice President Kamala Harris, whom the Russians portray as incompetent, vapid and unintelligent.”
Heino Klinck, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia and military attaché to China, echoed these sentiments, highlighting how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will likely exploit the abrupt change to strengthen its own narratives.
“Harris’ sudden quasi-coronation will only serve CCP talking points about the chaos of American democracy,” he said. “Her lack of national security and defense experience will not engender confidence with our partners and allies.”
Some reporting suggests that Harris’ relatively limited foreign policy experience may lead her to rely heavily on her advisors, potentially resulting in minimal deviations from Biden’s approach to major international issues like the war in Ukraine.
However, potential differences between Harris and the current president could emerge in areas such as her stance on the
Harris’ position on the Middle East and its potential impact on U.S. policy should she win remain unclear. The current vice president has adopted a more assertive approach than Biden regarding Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war against Hamas in Gaza. However, overtly criticizing Israel could also prove unpopular among moderate Democrat voters.
“It’s unclear what on the major issues of the region, ranging from Iran to Israel, may change under a potential Harris government,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran expert and senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Digital. “Yet the thinking about the region, from national security officials around her and around the Democratic Party, seems to be less is more when it comes to the region. But such thinking is what has cleared the way for the emboldenment of the Islamic Republic [of Iran].
Taleblu stated that “transitions can be turbulent periods, even for democracies” and that Iran could potentially capitalize on Biden’s withdrawal from the ticket.
“My concern is that while the swap at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket may have been done to placate domestic audiences, there are real questions pertaining to how the chaos looks and sounds abroad,” he added.
The Iranian security expert pointed to Tehran’s expanding nuclear program, its increased reliance on militant groups to engage in proxy wars in the Middle East, and its burgeoning relationships with nations like Russia as examples of Iran’s expanding security threat.
“This could all easily intensify if the administration appears chaotic and distracted,” he said.
While Harris hasn’t been at the forefront of addressing major international security threats in her role as vice president, she has been privy to White House policy strategy and top-level intelligence during her time on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.