The global population is projected to expand by over 2 billion individuals in the coming decades, culminating in a peak of around 10.3 billion in the 2080s, according to a new report released by the United Nations on Thursday.
The report, published on World Population Day, forecasts that the global population will subsequently decline to approximately 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
The report, titled World Population Prospects 2024, attributes the earlier-than-anticipated population peak to several factors, including reduced fertility rates in some of the world’s most populous countries, whose population is expected to decrease dramatically from 1.4 billion in 2024 to 633 million in 2100.
The report highlights that women globally are having, on average, one fewer child than they did in 1990. In more than half of all countries and territories, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1, which is the level required for a country’s population to remain stable without migration.
Nearly 20% of the world, including nations like China, Italy, South Korea, and Spain, exhibit “ultra-low” fertility, with women having fewer than 1.4 live births, according to the report by the U.N. Population Division.
“The earlier and lower peak is a hopeful sign,” stated U.N. Undersecretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Li Junhua. “This could translate to diminished environmental pressures arising from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption.”
Li emphasized, however, that even with a slower rate of population growth, individuals must still take steps to reduce the environmental impact of their activities to protect the environment.
The report reveals that as of 2024, population has already peaked in 63 countries and territories, including China, Germany, Japan, and Russia. Within this group, the total population is projected to decline by 14% over the next 30 years.
In another 48 countries and territories, including Brazil, Iran, Turkey, and Vietnam, the population is projected to reach its peak between 2025 and 2054, according to the report.
The remaining 126 countries and territories, including the United States, India, Indonesia, Nigeria , are anticipated to experience population growth through 2054, “potentially peaking in the latter half of the century or beyond.”
For nine of these countries, including Angola, Central African Republic, Congo, Nigeria, and Somalia, the U.N. is forecasting exceptionally rapid growth, with their populations doubling between 2024 and 2054.
The world’s population has witnessed a dramatic increase over the past 75 years, rising from an estimated 2.6 billion in 1950 to 8 billion in November 2022. Since then, it has grown by roughly 2.5% to 8.2 billion.
Kathleen Mogelgaard, president and CEO of the Washington-based Population Institute, commented on Thursday that the new estimates highlight “a widening demographic divide across the globe.”
While the report identified over 100 countries and territories whose populations have already peaked or will do so within the next 30 years, she pointed out that it also demonstrates a trend of continued population growth in other regions, many of which are among the world’s poorest nations.