Taiwanese citizens are set to head to the polls this Saturday to decide whether the capital, Taipei, should reactivate its nuclear power capabilities. This ballot comes as the island grapples with significant energy vulnerabilities amidst increasing alarm over potential threats from China.
In May, Taiwan decommissioned the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant—its last operational nuclear facility—following a 2016 pledge by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to eliminate nuclear power by 2025. This commitment stemmed from concerns about nuclear fallout, particularly in the wake of Japan’s 2011 Fukushima accident.
Security analysts have since raised warnings that this move further exposes Taiwan to China, given the island’s high dependence on energy imports. Taiwan heavily relies on nations such as the U.S., Australia, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar for supplies of both Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and crude oil.
“Taiwan’s energy dependence is an Achilles heel,” stated Craig Singleton, China Program senior director and senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), during a media call that followed a delegation’s visit to the island earlier this month.
“Beijing can exploit this issue without firing a single shot,” he added, highlighting the ease with which Taiwan could be blockaded. “China can leverage its maritime dominance, its legal warfare, and cyber tools to choke supply and test Taiwan’s political resilience.”
Over the past decade, Taiwan has imported up to 97% of its energy requirements, primarily through fossil fuels, which currently constitute slightly over 90% of its energy consumption. Renewables reportedly account for another 7%, according to FDD experts.
Despite this, before the decision to abandon the alternative energy option, nuclear power was a robust supply source, providing nearly 20% of Taiwan’s electricity.
By 2021, that supply had dwindled to roughly 9.5%, and by the following year, it had dipped to about 6.8% before being completely phased out this year.
For some nations, particularly in Europe, nuclear power has become a solution as they aim to reduce reliance on carbon-emitting fuels amidst escalating climate change concerns.
However, some countries, like Germany, have taken an opposing stance due to worries about nuclear fallout—a concern vividly demonstrated by the devastating consequences of the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster, which not only affected those in the immediate vicinity of Ukraine but also had widespread effects across Europe.
Germany also completed its nuclear phase-out entirely in 2023. Nevertheless, Taiwan faces distinct and significant security challenges that Germany does not.
Opponents of nuclear power have also pointed out that recent wartime scenarios have highlighted the security risks associated with active nuclear power plants, as observed during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the conflict over the Zaporizhzhia plant.
Yet, experts also contend that Taiwan would likely exhaust its oil reserves within weeks or even days if China were to impose a blockade, according to an FDD report.
Therefore, nuclear power would offer Taipei an additional energy storage solution.
“Nuclear power does, in my view, change that calculus, providing a lot of continuity under coercion, and I think it really complicates Beijing’s playbook,” Singleton argued.
Ultimately, he stated that Taiwan needs to better diversify its energy needs to more effectively guard against a potential Chinese blockade.
“The U.S. needs to help Taiwan diversify fast, cut exposure to vulnerable suppliers like Qatar, and probably prepare for a contest of endurance because I think that’s exactly how China is thinking about this issue,” he added, noting Qatar’s relationship with China and its large volume of LNG exports to Beijing.
Singleton emphasized that Ukraine has proven to be a valuable case study, not merely concerning the vulnerabilities of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, but also in illustrating how an invading nation can target weaknesses across every aspect of the energy sector.
“Ukraine shows that energy is one of the fastest ways to undermine a country’s will. And obviously Russia targeted power to free cities and to fracture cohesion and to force concessions,” Singleton explained. “I think Beijing is absolutely studying that playbook.”