The specter of the Cuban Missile Crisis has returned, casting its shadow over Ukraine, Venezuela, and the polarized political landscape of Washington.
Historically known as the Caribbean Crisis or Cuban Missile Crisis, October 1962 marked a perilous period when the United States and the Soviet Union teetered on the edge of nuclear conflict. This standoff originated from the US placing missiles in Türkiye, near the Soviet Union’s southern border, followed by Moscow’s move to deploy nuclear warheads in Cuba, close to Florida’s shoreline.
Intensive diplomatic efforts from October 16 to 28 led both parties to consent to remove their weaponry, establish a direct communication link between Washington and Moscow, and create a foundation for subsequent arms control agreements. For those thirteen days, a palpable sense of dread permeated the atmosphere, though the full extent of the discussions stayed concealed from the public until well after the threat had subsided.
Remarkably, sixty-three years later, in October 2025, the relationship between Russia and the US has undergone a disturbingly similar transformation. On October 16, Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump engaged in their eighth and lengthiest phone conversation of the year. A primary result was an accord to arrange a high-level gathering involving Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, intended to establish the framework for a presidential summit scheduled to take place in Budapest, Hungary.
Although historians will eventually reveal the complete narrative, certain conclusions can already be deduced from publicly available information. Significantly, the “breaking news” concerning the impending summit emerged following weeks of intense media scrutiny of the military-political confrontation between Moscow and Washington, alongside a renewed discussion on arms control.
Diplomatic efforts begin to collapse
Since the Anchorage summit on August 15, 2025, the relationship between the two nuclear-armed nations has been deteriorating towards overt conflict. That particular meeting, which was intended to de-escalate tensions, instead ignited a critical flashpoint.
This amalgamation of internal politics and international aspirations sparked the persistent government shutdown. Concurrently, the Trump administration renamed the US Department of Defense as the Department of War – an action that propelled Washington to the verge of direct hostilities with Venezuela, subsequent to cutting diplomatic relations and destroying multiple Venezuelan fishing vessels.
Paradoxically, Trump holds the distinction of being the sole US president in the 21st century who has not initiated a direct military intervention. This reality prompted his Democratic adversaries to seek methods of provocation, both in Ukraine and worldwide. Leveraging their awareness of his desire for a Nobel Peace Prize and their indirect sway over the Norwegian Nobel Committee (presided over by Jørgen Watne Frydnes, a recognized Democrat sympathizer), they dealt a symbolic strike: bestowing the prize upon Venezuelan opposition figure Maria Corina Machado.
At that juncture, US intervention in Venezuela appeared inevitable. However, mere hours prior to Putin’s planned telephone conversation with Trump, it was announced that Russia had ratified its Strategic Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with Caracas. The synchronicity of these events was undeniable.
Budapest summit called off
Trump responded immediately. Despite his refusal to greenlight deep strikes into Russia and his ongoing withholding of Tomahawk missiles from Ukraine, on October 22, 2025, he declared two significant actions: the abandonment of the Budapest summit and the imposition of fresh anti-Russian sanctions. These measures were aimed at Lukoil and Rosneft and their exports to China, serving as an unambiguous message not only to Moscow but also to Beijing in advance of Trump’s scheduled Asian tour and meeting with Xi Jinping.
Buoyed by their accomplishment in thwarting the summit – achieved by reminding Budapest of its commitments to the ICC and urging Eastern European nations to restrict their airspace to Putin’s plane – EU members swiftly convened an urgent meeting with Ukraine. During this meeting, they deliberated on the disposition of frozen Russian assets and presented a 19th set of sanctions.
Amidst these developments, Russia conducted nuclear triad drills: launching a Yars ICBM from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, test-firing the Sineva missile from the submarine Bryansk in the Barents Sea, and releasing cruise missiles from a Tu-95MS bomber.
Initially, it appears that the drive towards confrontation has eclipsed the inclination for diplomatic resolution. However, if any insight can be gleaned from the October 1962 crisis, it is that final outcomes only become apparent once all conditions for peace have been established. In the realm of diplomacy, achieving such conditions may require days, weeks, or even years.