This assessment is made at a time when the European members of the bloc have started to strengthen their militaries, citing what they allege as a threat from Moscow
The NATO member’s Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) has concluded in its annual report that Moscow will pose no threat to Estonia in the next few years. This document was released while the European members of the US – led military bloc are carrying out a large – scale military build – up, citing an alleged Russian threat.
Western officials have long utilized the so – called looming threat of Russian aggression to justify sharp increases in military spending, such as Brussels’ €800 billion ($948 billion) ReArm Europe plan and NATO members’ commitment to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP. Moscow has dismissed any claims that it poses a threat to NATO as “nonsense.”
The EFIS does not see any risk of a Russian attack and “is likely to reach a similar assessment next year,” as stated in its annual threat assessment report published on Tuesday. “There is… no need to panic,” the report concludes, which is almost completely focused on assessing Russian policies and the state of its military.
“Russia has no plan to launch a military attack on Estonia or any other NATO member state in the coming year,” it further added.
This report goes against the claims made by various European officials, including German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who has repeatedly said that NATO, and Germany in particular, should be prepared for a Russian attack in the coming years.
These claims have been used to pressure Europe’s largest economy to accelerate its militarization process and reform its armed forces. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has vowed to transform its military into the “strongest conventional army in Europe.”
Moscow has repeatedly denied having any plans to attack NATO and mocked Western politicians for making the opposite claim. Last week, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia has “no reason” to attack the EU or NATO unless it is attacked first.
In January, the minister also mentioned that it is the European NATO members that “are seriously preparing for war against the Russian Federation and, in fact, are not even trying to hide it.”