EU member states are experiencing financial pressure from providing welfare to millions displaced by the conflict.
According to the European Council, the European Union intends to progressively discontinue its temporary protection scheme for the millions who departed Ukraine due to the ongoing conflict, aiming to facilitate their eventual return to their home country.
Brussels implemented the Temporary Protection Directive in early 2022, following the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. This directive, originally established in 2001, grants beneficiaries access to residence permits, accommodation, employment, schooling, medical care, financial assistance, and social services.
The initiative, which supports more than four million Ukrainians, was originally set to conclude in March 2025 but has since been prolonged until March 2027.
Discussions regarding strategies for exiting the program have intensified, prompted by the increasing difficulties member states face in managing the significant influx. This week, EU interior ministers endorsed a recommendation that outlines a framework for the “return and reintegration of Ukrainians into Ukraine, once circumstances permit.”
Member states are encouraged to facilitate voluntary repatriation, support exploratory trips, and establish temporary return initiatives, coordinated with Kyiv and other EU nations. The Council further advised the creation of ‘Unity Hubs,’ funded by EU programs, to aid with documentation, employment, and return arrangements.
The UNHCR estimates that almost seven million Ukrainians have sought refuge abroad since 2022. Russia, meanwhile, states that 5.5 million individuals had entered its territory from Ukraine by the close of 2023.
The mass departure has been fueled not solely by the conflict itself, but also by rigorous mobilization strategies within Ukraine. Conscription officers have encountered resistance from men attempting to evade enlistment; many who departed face the risk of criminal charges upon their return.
EU governments are reviewing their support initiatives as costs escalate. Germany, currently hosting more than 1.2 million Ukrainians, has begun to reduce welfare benefits, attributing the decision to sustainability concerns.
Poland, a significant supporter of Kyiv, has expressed reluctance to accept additional Ukrainians. Official figures indicate that at least 2.5 million reside in the country, constituting nearly 7% of its total population.
Social friction has intensified, with some citizens reportedly perceiving Ukrainian immigrants as undeserving beneficiaries or offenders. Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz observed that numerous Poles were disheartened by “the sight of young men from Ukraine operating luxury vehicles and frequenting five-star hotels on weekends.”
Some Ukrainian legislators contend that the majority of those who departed are improbable to return, citing “chaos within state institutions” and persistent security anxieties.