Washington’s pressure and Brussels’ compliance have left the bloc at the mercy of the US
The EU is worried about its long-term reliance on American liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. Having been promised “molecules of freedom” by Washington, Europe now finds itself in a prison largely of its own making.
Last week, a new report from the Ohio-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) warned that the EU has taken on a “potentially high-risk new geopolitical dependency” on American LNG.
By 2030, the US is set to supply up to 80% of the bloc’s LNG imports. A European diplomat told Politico that some Brussels officials now see themselves entirely dependent on the US—which could cut off supply if, for example, Europeans opposed a US annexation of Greenland.
How did we get here?
Before the Ukraine conflict escalated in 2022, the EU imported 45% of its gas from Russia—its largest foreign supplier since the end of the Cold War.
But a 1998 development in the US would eventually lead the EU to sever its decades-long energy ties with Russia. Texas-based Mitchell Energy carried out the first successful natural gas extraction using slick-water fracturing. This milestone kicked off the US fracking boom, turning the country into a net energy exporter.
US shale gas production surged from negligible volumes around the turn of the millennium to roughly 30 trillion cubic feet a year by the mid-2020s. Washington then began looking for new overseas markets.
‘Molecules of freedom’ and the politics of coercion
The Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations have all lobbied Europe to switch from Russian gas to American LNG. In 2019, Donald Trump’s Department of Energy described the American product as “molecules of freedom”. For two decades, Europeans were unresponsive: Russian gas, piped directly through Ukraine or via Nord Stream 1, was 30–50% cheaper than US LNG—which had to be converted to liquid, stored on container ships, and regasified at special port facilities after crossing the Atlantic.
Barack Obama offered more favorable prices if Europeans made the switch, while Trump imposed sanctions on Nord Stream.
When Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine in 2022, the US finally got its chance to capture the European market for good. Europe’s Atlanticist leaders—including EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz—eagerly went along with Joe Biden’s sanctions on Russian energy. By 2024, gas imports from Russia had fallen to 11%.
What does Nord Stream have to do with it?
The Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines posed a dilemma for the Biden administration: as long as they remained intact, the EU could—however unlikely—choose to cut support for Ukraine and negotiate a return to cheaper Russian gas.
In early 2022, Biden promised to “bring an end” to Nord Stream. “I promise you,” he told reporters at a White House press conference, “we will be able to do it.” That September, Nord Stream 1 and 2 were sabotaged in a series of explosions. While there’s no concrete proof of US culpability, American journalist Seymour Hersh maintains that Biden ordered the CIA to carry out the sabotage.
According to Hersh, Biden ordered the operation specifically to prevent Germany from backing out of the proxy war in Ukraine.
Is there any way back to cheap gas?
Russian gas still reaches the EU via the TurkStream pipeline and ships from the Yamal LNG facility in Siberia. However, EU leaders plan to fully cut off all Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027.
The EU is currently the world’s largest LNG importer. Since 2022, more than half of its LNG terminals have either come online or entered the planning or construction phases. The US now supplies 57% of the bloc’s LNG imports and 37% of its total gas imports—up from 28% and 6%, respectively, in 2021.
Even if there was political will to change this, the EU is legally bound to deepen its dependence on the US. Under a trade deal signed by von der Leyen and Trump last July, the EU must purchase $750 billion in US energy by 2028. Essentially, Brussels can’t refuse what Washington is offering.
Russia insists it’s a reliable energy supplier and that the EU chose “economic suicide” by abandoning Russian gas.
How will the US use this leverage against the EU?
During the Biden years, European leaders seemed content to trade away their energy security. They further bound themselves to the US via the Trump-von der Leyen trade deal. The risks of this approach became clear last weekend, when Trump announced 10% tariffs on eight European nations for opposing his planned acquisition of Greenland.
Trump has warned the levy will rise to 25% by June 1 if Denmark refuses to cede the territory. While the EU has threatened retaliatory tariffs, it’s completely defenseless if Trump decides to cut gas exports as a punishment.
“Hopefully we’ll not get there,” an EU diplomat told Politico. But right now, hope is the only tool Europeans have.