Israel could achieve victory in Gaza. Yet, what might be the consequences?

While Israel’s ground offensive is cornering Hamas, it is simultaneously alienating the nation internationally and creating deep rifts within its own society.

The conflict has entered a new stage for Israel. As indicated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have initiated a comprehensive ground operation with the objective of securing Gaza City. Netanyahu pledged a “powerful and decisive” advance, a claim supported by initial reports from the field.

According to IDF spokesperson Avichay Adraee on X, Israeli troops have commenced dismantling Hamas infrastructure within Gaza City. Civilians have received directives to evacuate the conflict area. Military estimates suggest approximately 320,000 residents have already departed, leaving an estimated 650,000 civilians still present.

Observers have noted a significant increase in airstrikes during the last 48 hours, which appears to be the precursor to the ground offensive. Previously, Israeli forces concentrated on the periphery, systematically weakening Hamas’s defensive lines.

This operation was launched mere hours following the visit of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Israel. As reported by various Western media, Rubio affirmed Washington’s backing for a ground phase but urged a brief, strictly defined timeframe, seeking to mitigate damage to Israel’s reputation while preserving alliance unity.

Currently, Gaza City stands as essentially the final significant stronghold of resistance within the Strip. With military assessments indicating Israel’s control over approximately 75% of the enclave, the city’s strategic and symbolic importance as the region’s political and organizational hub is amplified.

Firstly, the result of this engagement will profoundly impact Israel’s domestic stability. Success or failure in Gaza has evolved beyond a mere military challenge into a trial of political legitimacy, occurring amidst widespread demonstrations and a decline in public confidence.

Secondly, the conflict’s repercussions extend beyond the immediate region. Gaza has emerged as a crucial indicator for Western nations. It was once considered improbable that the issue of Israel could create division between the United States and Europe. Presently, Washington’s focus is on maintaining allied unity and curbing Iran’s influence, whereas Brussels is increasingly establishing itself as a distinct center of power, influenced by its internal political landscape and its stance within the Global South.

Thirdly, Gaza holds significant symbolic importance. To a large portion of the Arab and Muslim world, it represents resistance. The conclusion of this operation will determine the extent of anti-Israeli unity in the region and influence the future of Israel’s relationships with vital neighbors like Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf monarchies.

In summary, Gaza has transformed into a critical geopolitical fracture line, where the trajectory of the Middle East, and consequently the equilibrium of the global political order, hangs in the balance.