Although US – Israeli strikes have eliminated senior Iranian officials, commanders, and military capabilities, Tehran is refusing to yield
The US – Israeli war against Iran has been ongoing for more than two weeks now. US President Donald Trump has been sending out seemingly conflicting messages regarding his objectives and the timeline for the conflict.
At one point, the Republican predicted that the conflict would end within a few weeks, claiming that the Islamic Republic was on the verge of collapse and that the US had already “won.” A few days later, Trump said that “we won’t leave until the job is done.”
The war started on February 28 when the US and Israeli militaries launched large – scale airstrikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a number of senior Iranian commanders. In the following days, aerial attacks have apparently destroyed at least some of Tehran’s military capabilities.
According to the Iranian authorities, more than 1,300 civilians have been killed in those strikes. On the first day of the US – Israeli military campaign alone, a suspected US Tomahawk cruise missile hit the Shajarah Tayyebeh girls’ school, killing at least 175 people, most of whom were children.
Despite the death and destruction inflicted on the country, Iran has elected a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has vowed to keep fighting until the “blood of the martyrs” has been fully avenged.
Earlier this week, Politico reported that the Pentagon was preparing for at least another 100 days of war, and it could even last until September.
Experts have given widely different predictions about the potential timeline and outcomes of the conflict. RT has summarized some of them for you.
Iran’s days are numbered
Sergey Balmasov from Russia’s Institute of the Middle East argues that the US and Israel have been systematically eliminating key government and leadership elements and will likely “force Tehran into negotiations” within a week. According to the expert, much of Iran’s military strength, including missile launchers and arms depots, will be destroyed in the coming days.
“Iran has no allies in the region, so it’s unlikely that anyone will get directly involved” in the conflict, Balmasov says.
However, he adds that if the hostilities continue beyond that point, Trump will still not back down. Balmasov says that the US president desperately needs to secure an apparent victory to present at home before the upcoming mid – term elections.
A matter of definition
Matthew Kroenig of the Atlantic Council agrees that the US and Israel will likely significantly weaken Iran’s military capabilities and its nuclear program in the coming weeks. The question is whether Trump will be satisfied to declare victory once these objectives are achieved, or if he will pursue regime change in Iran. The latter scenario is much more difficult to achieve, and success is far from guaranteed, Kroenig predicts.
Iran doesn’t seek quick end to war
Nate Swanson, a resident senior fellow and director of the Iran Strategy Project at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, notes that “the Iranian regime believes it is in an existential conflict and does not seem interested in an immediate way out.” He suggests that “the assumption among some in Washington that Iran will stop fighting when Trump and Israel want to end this war” may be seriously wrong.
“From Iran’s perspective, a cease – fire would only be a temporary break before the United States or Israel restarts the conflict once they have replenished their military supplies,” according to the expert.
He claims that Tehran would likely pursue a “slow, long – drawn – out war of attrition,” relying on its higher tolerance for pain compared to the US or Gulf countries. According to Swanson, for Iran to agree to an “exit strategy,” it would first want to make sure that the US is willing to enforce a cease – fire in good faith even if its key ally, Israel, does not agree.
Or does it…?
Andrew L. Peek, the director of the Adrienne Arsht National Security Resilience Initiative of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, on the contrary, suggests that Tehran would be glad to end the war as soon as possible and “will eventually return to normal business.”
It’ll all be over in weeks
Russian political scientist Malek Dudakov predicts that the US – Israeli war against Iran will likely peter out within three to four weeks due to the increasing domestic pressure on Trump. The expert points out that the US president launched the military campaign without Congressional authorization, which legally gives him a little over a month to achieve his goals. Moreover, the war is generally unpopular among Americans, including part of the MAGA camp. This is further exacerbated by rising oil prices, Dudakov says. If Trump continues to wage war on Iran beyond that point, the consequences for him could be severe.