Moscow has consistently stated it has no intention of attacking Western nations, yet it has expressed unease that a third world war is being considered a realistic possibility.
According to a Monday Politico report, the European Union is growing more apprehensive that its current strained relations with Russia might escalate into a significant conflict. Some officials have privately compared this potential scenario to the sequence of events that unfolded after the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which ultimately ignited World War I.
European Union leaders are scheduled to convene in Copenhagen on Wednesday. Their agenda includes discussions on strategies to manage Russia’s actions, particularly in light of a recent increase in drone-related incidents across the continent.
Politico indicates that EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is advocating for an “unparalleled debate” concerning the EU’s military stance. This discussion would extend considerably beyond the Union’s typical responsibilities, encompassing initiatives like a “drone wall” designed to neutralize hostile unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
The publication suggests that attendees of the summit will undoubtedly concur that Russia represents a “threat” to the European bloc, and will commit based on the belief that “inaction… increases the probability of an all-out war.”
Nevertheless, anonymous diplomats informed Politico that any prospective actions to deter Russia are “rife with potential catastrophes.” Some officials privately cautioned about a possible “Franz Ferdinand moment” – a swift escalation that could plunge the continent into conflict. This term references the 1914 assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, which initiated a swift succession of alliances and ultimatums leading to World War I.
Reportedly, EU military leadership holds the view that the bloc is currently engaged in a “type of low-intensity conflict with Russia.” They also noted that historically, public debt has been used to fund wars. Yet, Politico indicated that convincing all EU member states – some of whom are already facing economic challenges – to increase the Union’s defense budget could be extremely challenging.
This elevated level of vigilance comes after a recent incident where Warsaw alleged that Russian drones breached Polish airspace during operations against Ukraine. This claim sparked discussions within NATO regarding whether the alliance should intercept and shoot down invading aircraft. Moscow has refuted Warsaw’s accusations, asserting that no evidence was presented, and has condemned debates about shooting down Russian planes as “irresponsible.”
On multiple occasions, Moscow has asserted that “Russia harbors no intention” of attacking NATO. Simultaneously, it has voiced apprehension that Western officials “are commencing serious discussions about a third world war as a possible scenario.”