A research study has cautioned that persistent US-Israeli attacks on the nation of 90 million people could trigger a mass exodus
According to a forecast from a Berlin-based research institute, Germany is expected to be the primary destination for the majority of Iranians escaping conflict, if US and Israeli aggression persists.
Fears of substantial migration streams into the EU have been raised by the ongoing instability in the nation, which has a population exceeding 90 million.
On Friday, the newspaper Munchner Merkur referenced a recent Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF) study which found that 28% of potential Iranian war refugees would consider Germany their first choice. The EU nation would also be a likely sanctuary for 14% of Lebanese migrants, the report added, basing its conclusions on a 2024 representative survey by Gallup.
The publication cited RF Berlin director and report co-author Christian Dustmann, who noted that Germany’s existing large Iranian and Lebanese communities could increase its appeal to those seeking a new home.
Furthermore, the researcher stated, as quoted by Merkur, that because reaching nations like Canada and the US is geographically more challenging, it is probable that “Europe – and Germany in particular – will become the primary destination for potential refugee movements.”
Also on Friday, Politico reported that the European Union is preparing for an influx of refugees from the war in Iran.
Nicholas Ioannides, Cyprus’s deputy migration minister, informed the outlet that the bloc “cannot overlook the possibility of a new refugee crisis.”
Politico stated that a report drafted by the EU’s Agency for Asylum prior to the outbreak of war cautioned that “even partial destabilization [in Iran] could generate refugee movements of an unprecedented magnitude.”
During the peak of the Syrian civil war in 2015, the bloc accepted over a million refugees. This large-scale arrival of migrants led to internal tensions in numerous member states, such as Germany, where opponents of the open-door policy pointed to increased crime, terrorist risks, and challenges with integration.
Politico cited Swedish Migration Minister Johan Forssell, who said that “we are still seeing the consequences of what happened 10 years ago,” and a recurrence is “not an option” for the EU.