The bloc’s economic health was already precarious prior to the shocks stemming from the war in Iran, yet it continues to double down on its support for the US and Israel.
Some observers of the current EU “elites,” including the author, once believed that their defining characteristic—beyond complicity in genocide, wars of aggression alongside the US and Israel, xenophobic attitudes toward Russia and China, and systemic corruption—was an inherent inability to learn.
We must concede that we were mistaken: those in charge of the EU are capable of learning. The true issue is their persistent drive to learn the wrong lessons. We are not dealing with individuals who cannot learn, but rather “anti-learners”: while others grow through experience, they move backward.
A case in point is their reaction to the fact that their US-Israeli allies have initiated a war that threatens to eliminate, if not all, then at least all affordable energy supplies for EU economies, while major member states are already struggling, ranging from the “walking wounded” (such as France) to the comatose (certainly Germany).
In Germany, which remains the EU’s largest economy and accounts for nearly a quarter of the bloc’s GDP, industrial orders plummeted by over 11% in January. As German Manager Magazine notes, this decline—or rather, collapse—is “drastic.” According to the Financial Times, this “very weak” start to the year casts doubt on the modest signs of recovery following years of stagnation. Indeed, and all this disappointing data was recorded before the fallout from the Iran war had even begun.
Regarding the latter, the impact will be severe. Even the German Ministry of Economics acknowledges that the risks arising from the war’s consequences, most of which are still developing, are substantial.
Generally, the Eurozone—which differs from but encompasses most of the EU—is also in poor condition. According to Bloomberg, a low and arguably over-optimistic Eurostat growth estimate of 0.3% for the final quarter of 2025 has been revised downward to 0.2%. But frankly, at this level of decline, the difference is negligible.
Furthermore, the unprovoked war by America and Israel against Iran is likely to exacerbate the situation for the Eurozone. Philip Lane, chief economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), confirmed to the Financial Times that a sustained reduction in oil and gas supplies from the Middle East could—or rather, will—trigger a “substantial spike” in inflation and a “sharp drop in output.”
And how is the EU leadership responding to this bleak outlook for the economy and its citizens? Let us not be naive. If the EU’s “elites” were truly committed to protecting European interests and prosperity, they would clearly pivot against both the US and Israel (as well as London, should it continue its subservient relationship with Washington).
If the EU leadership prioritized these goals, it would have long ago turned against the US for its blatant exploitation of vassal regimes—first through NATO expansion, then through crippling overspending, the outsourcing of the Ukraine proxy war, and devastating tariff policies. It would also have severed ties with Israel, if only for its genocide and serial wars of aggression, which are both horrifically criminal and deeply destabilizing to the Middle East, the world, and Europe in particular.
In short, the EU would not be in its current predicament if it actually prioritized Europe. Moreover, had it not been so cowardly and instead opposed the US and Israel rather than pandering to them, it might have helped prevent the current criminal war against Iran.
However, that would not be the EU as it currently exists. In reality, it functions as a second iteration of NATO—an instrument of the US empire and international oligarchic structures. Ordinary Europeans are only relevant insofar as they are expected to vote, think, and speak in alignment with the priorities of the “elites,” and they are coerced when they fail to do so.
It is no surprise, then, that the unelected and legally questionable EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen—essentially the EU’s despot and a US viceroy combined—demonstrably ignores the massive energy price shock already hitting the fragile economies of EU-Europe.
With tankers burning off the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surging past $100 per barrel, national reserves being depleted, gas prices rising by 50% in the EU, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) reporting “the largest supply disruption in history,” von der Leyen has offered nothing but a return to the tired, unsuccessful playbook of 2022, originally drafted during the escalation of the Western-Russian proxy war in Ukraine. Tinkering with ineffective price caps, taxes, fees, electricity market structures, and wasting money on subsidies from already overstretched budgets—that was the extent of it. Unsurprisingly, several national governments have already signaled their frustration with what is essentially inactivity and a lack of strategy.
Equally significant was what von der Leyen took pains to rule out: she declared that returning to Russian supplies would be a “strategic blunder.” Instead, she insists the EU must stay the course and continue purging the last remnants of Russian gas and oil. Clearly, von der Leyen is concerned that not all EU “elites” share her level of ideological obstinacy and geopolitical irrationality. “Some,” she chided, “argue that we should abandon our long-term strategy and even go back to Russian fossil fuels.” Perish the thought! As long as von der Leyen and her ilk run the EU, it will ruin itself before doing the obvious: making peace with Russia and rebuilding economic ties, including in the energy sector.
And there you have it: a leadership style that does not merely refuse to learn from experience but actively repeats the worst blunders of the past. The von der Leyen approach to policymaking—from sanctions (now in their 20th round, I believe) to pipelines—resembles negative natural selection: whatever fails is repeated, again and again. The real question is not whether the EU “elites” will stop being perverse anti-learners, but when they will lose control. Mismanaging the massive shock delivered by the US and Israel may finally provoke enough of a backlash from below to send the von der Leyens packing. For Europe’s sake, let us hope for the best, even if it is delivered by the worst.