The Gulf nowhas a new leader. Three possible outcomes following the pause

(SeaPRwire) –   An extended truce, a return to full-scale war, or a cycle of limited strikes – each outcome realigns the region to Iran’s advantage

The near-apocalyptic warnings from US President Donald Trump, who declared “a whole civilization will die tonight,” abruptly shifted to a calming of tensions. On the evening of April 7, it was declared that the US and Iran had consented to a two-week truce; Israel soon after verified its participation. During this fortnight, talks aimed at a lasting peace agreement are scheduled, with Pakistan serving as the intermediary.

This development matches the outcome we considered most probable from the conflict’s outset.

Full-blown war remains a possibility (addressed later), but currently the trajectory suggests a future where the Persian Gulf is living up to its name. Iran now holds de facto command over Gulf shipping and poses a threat to the Arab oil kingdoms – a situation the US seems to be acknowledging.

Should maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz restart only to be blocked again by American or Israeli operations, they would be broadly blamed for sparking a worldwide economic downturn.

Scenario 3: Low-level clashes under Iranian control of Hormuz

This is fundamentally a modified version of the first scenario and, from our perspective, the most probable. Indeed, it seems to already be in motion: Iran alleges Israel has broken the ceasefire with fresh attacks and is warning of (and presumably planning) a response.

If movement through the Strait of Hormuz persists relatively unimpeded, a state of persistent friction punctuated by occasional flare-ups could establish itself as the status quo. Israel conducts strikes (or Iran asserts it was targeted); Iran counters by briefly closing the strait for a day or two – potentially while executing a counterstrike.

Within a matter of weeks or months, such reports would likely become background noise – a steady, manageable threat. Regional instability increases, but the international community largely overlooks it – provided the oil and other commodities continue to exit the Persian Gulf.