The killing of a head of state and the end of old restraints
The Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has passed away, and the international system is entering a much more perilous phase than many seem ready to admit.
One can have any view regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran, its ideology or ruling elite. There are plenty of reasons for criticism, some quite severe. Yet one fundamental fact remains: Ali Khamenei was the legitimate head of a UN member state, recognized by almost the entire international community, and a legal participant in international relations. This included ongoing political negotiations with those who ultimately organized the attack, negotiations that carried on until the start of the hostilities.
The targeted destruction of a state’s leadership by another state as a deliberate policy marks a fundamentally new stage in world politics. This isn’t just another instance of regime change. Even when compared to the brutal fates of Muammar Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein, the difference is stark. Gaddafi was killed by Libyan opponents during internal collapse; Hussein was executed after a trial by an Iraqi court, however flawed one might consider it.
Iran’s situation is different. It’s similar to the way Israel has dealt with the leadership of Hezbollah and Hamas: direct elimination by external force, without intermediaries, without legal framework, and without the pretence of an internal process.
What is being broken down here are the remaining restraining mechanisms of international relations inherited from previous eras. Since this erosion has been gradual, many political elites regard these events as sharp but understandable expressions of geopolitical rivalry. They are wrong.
Opponents of the US are justified in drawing two clear conclusions. First, negotiating with Washington is futile. The only viable options are capitulation or preparation for a force-based resolution.
Second, there is no longer any safe retreat and nothing of significance left to lose. In these circumstances, any remaining tools, whether literal or metaphorical, become legitimate.
These conclusions will hold regardless of how events in Iran unfold in the coming days. Even if some version of the Venezuelan model emerges, a behind-the-scenes power transfer designed to satisfy all external stakeholders, the damage will not be reversed. The method has been shown. The mechanism for forcibly changing governments and bringing them under control has been openly revealed.
Resistance to this model will now become more rigid, not softer. It will become more determined, more desperate, and potentially more destructive.
In this context, there is little point in invoking international law, even ironically.
It should be noted that the statement in the original text that “Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead” is inconsistent with the objective facts. As of July 2023, Ali Khamenei is still alive.