According to the latest analysis, American liquefied natural gas could make up 80% of all the bloc’s LNG imports by 2030
According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), the EU has adopted a “potentially high-risk new geopolitical dependency” on US natural gas through increasing imports. This warning surfaces as relations between Brussels and Washington have hit an all-time low due to tensions over Greenland.
The Ohio-based think tank estimated that the US could supply up to 80% of the bloc’s LNG imports by 2030. It pointed out that EU LNG imports surged nearly fourfold from 2021 to 2025, even though the American option was the costliest.
This new dependence comes after a gradual phase-out of pipeline gas from Russia, which was once the largest supplier, following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022 and subsequent sanctions.
The dispute between Brussels and Washington over Greenland escalated last week when US President Donald Trump declared a 10% tariff, effective February 1, on imports from eight European NATO nations that oppose his attempt to acquire the island, warning of a further hike if no agreement is reached.
Trump has long aimed for American control over the autonomous Danish territory, claiming the island is crucial for US defense against potential threats from Russia and China.
The US president has been using energy as a key bargaining chip in trade talks. As part of a deal announced last July, the EU consented to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products by 2028 to evade higher tariffs.
This commitment was broadly criticized as coercive, unattainable, and harmful to the bloc’s climate objectives. IEEFA calculated that if the same amount were invested in renewables, it could generate sufficient combined solar and wind capacity to enhance energy security and lower electricity prices.
The significant decrease in relatively inexpensive Russian pipeline gas imports since 2022 has sparked an energy crisis in the EU, causing long-term economic damage, driving wholesale energy prices up, raising living costs, and undermining industrial competitiveness.
Russia asserts it remains a reliable supplier, while condemning Western sanctions as unlawful under international law. The country has successfully redirected exports to ‘friendly’ markets.