According to experts, a recent agreement facilitated by the President in the South Caucasus has concluded a conflict spanning decades and provided Washington with an uncommon strategic position near Iran’s northern frontier.
This month, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed an accord that provides the U.S. with a 99-year lease on the Zangezur Corridor. This vital land strip is set to become a crucial trade and energy pathway to Europe, completely circumventing Tehran. Iranian American journalist and dissident Banafsheh Zand informed Digital that this development is “a wonderful gain for the U.S.” and simultaneously “a slap in the face” for the Tehran regime.
The corridor has historically been central to the conflict, which led to the displacement of tens of thousands and prolonged instability for three decades. Trump’s involvement facilitated negotiations between both parties, leading to what commentators describe as a new commercial and security link connecting the Caspian Basin to Europe, completely circumventing Iran.
The agreement, referred to as the Trump Route for Peace & Prosperity (TRIPP), economically establishes Washington’s direct involvement in supervising the movement of Caspian hydrocarbons to Europe. The U.S. will oversee the corridor’s rail and road infrastructure, telecommunications networks, and energy pipelines, positioning American firms dominantly in regional transit for oil, gas, and various goods. By managing this key artery, the U.S. stands to generate billions in future trade and investment, while also securing Europe’s access to alternative supply routes, thereby lessening its dependence on both Russia and Iran.
For allied nations, the corridor provides more economical and secure access to Caspian energy. Conversely, for Tehran, it signifies a loss of income, diminished influence, and the termination of its role as an essential intermediary for East-West trade.
Zand indicated that the agreement is a direct benefit for Washington. “It’s a wonderful gain for the U.S.,” she remarked. “American contractors will oversee the transport of oil and gas from the Caspian Basin, which will be channeled through Zangezur and Turkey to Europe. The profit margins are substantial, and the entire process has NATO’s endorsement.”
Zand further elaborated on the potential implications. “While it’s not being discussed widely yet, I believe the establishment of U.S. bases there isn’t improbable,” she stated. “Should that occur, it would be checkmate for both the Khamenei regime and Russia.”
For Iran, the corridor signifies what Zand described as a catastrophic outcome. Tehran has historically leveraged its geographical position to influence energy and trade movements. This new agreement, by introducing the U.S. into the area, effectively divests Iran of that influence. Zand expressed it graphically: “Iran resembles a cat, a sitting cat. This corridor literally passes above the cat’s ears. It circumvents Iran, depriving the regime of revenue and isolating them.”
Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies Iran Program, commented that the corridor reveals Iran’s increased susceptibility in the Caucasus. He explained to Digital, “Both Armenia’s defeat in the recent conflict with Azerbaijan and the current political tensions between Moscow and Yerevan have made it more challenging for the Islamic Republic to fully exploit its long-standing economic and political ties with Armenia.”
“Despite this, they maintain connections, and the regime operates opportunistically as well as ideologically. Should any opportunity arise to undermine this agreement or secure concessions afterward, they will pursue it.”
Concurrently, he asserted that the strategic landscape is unmistakable. “The Islamic Republic is, essentially, excluded from this route,” he stated. “This isn’t merely a vital corridor poised to bring stability to the South Caucasus and economic advancement for all participating nations—it also underscores that the regime has so inadequately protected Iran’s national interests that the Iranian state finds itself shut out from a significant transit pathway directly adjacent to its border.”
Zand contended that the timing amplifies the impact. She referenced Iran’s diminished standing since October 7, 2023, and Israel’s recent 12-day conflict with Tehran. “The regime isolated itself when it failed to aid Hamas or Hezbollah. Iraqi Shiites are asserting their desire for autonomy, Syria is no longer under its sway, and Hezbollah has been weakened. For those of us who have observed the regime for decades, its true nature as a ‘paper tiger’ was always evident, and the recent war revealed it to the global community.”
The assassinations of senior IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists have intensified Tehran’s internal sense of fragility. Zand observed, “They may bluster about their power, but in reality, significant apprehension exists among the regime’s leadership. Khamenei has reportedly retreated into hiding once more.”
Ben Taleblu further noted that Washington is leveraging these developments to transform Iran’s vulnerabilities into strategic advantages. He stated, “Any area of regime weakness tends to provoke a response, be it military or economic. The U.S. has complemented Israel’s military achievements against the Islamic Republic with its own strikes on nuclear sites, and it is now building upon Azerbaijan’s battlefield victories with its own political and economic triumph. This corridor exemplifies America’s intervention during Tehran’s most susceptible period.”
Zand, whose father, a prominent Iranian journalist and intellectual, was assassinated by the regime, attributed the corridor’s success to Trump’s direct engagement. She commented, “Trump’s involvement makes a crucial difference. He disregards sensitivities and reacts to actions. With this initiative, he positions himself over Iran like a vulture – foreboding, observing, prepared.”
To dissidents such as Zand, the corridor signifies more than merely a transit pathway. She stated, “We have longed for this for decades. Until the regime is overthrown, the populace within Iran will remain too fearful to revolt anew. However, this corridor is a significant advantage. It demonstrates that the regime is encircled and its time is limited.”
Supported by NATO, the agreement has already been likened by some commentators to momentous peace treaties. Zand contends that its importance extends beyond merely concluding a three-decade conflict; it also establishes a lasting U.S. presence in the Caucasus. “The regime recognizes its predicament,” she concluded.