TAIPEI, Taiwan, Feb. 11, 2026 — According to TrendForce’s most recent smartphone industry analysis, a significant increase in memory prices is anticipated to severely impact worldwide smartphone production in 2026. Overall output is projected to decrease by 10% year-over-year, reaching roughly 1.135 billion units. As memory prices show no indication of stabilizing, the widening disparity between elevated retail prices and consumers’ willingness to pay is expected to further suppress demand.
In a pessimistic scenario, TrendForce cautions that the yearly reduction in global smartphone manufacturing could expand to 15% or beyond. Nevertheless, the degree of this effect will differ among brands, influenced by their distinct product ranges and geographical market presence.
For instance, considering a common 8GB + 256GB memory setup, projected contract prices in the first quarter of 2026 have escalated by almost 200% year-over-year—approximately three times higher than the previous year’s corresponding period. Memory, which traditionally constituted about 10–15% of a smartphone’s Bill of Materials (BOM), has now climbed to 30–40%. TrendForce suggests that increasing the prices of final products will be an inevitable step for numerous brands aiming to safeguard their profit margins, while adjustments to product offerings and specifications will also be necessary to cope with continuously high memory expenses.
Based on a 15% production decrease in the pessimistic scenario, TrendForce examined the 2026 production patterns among the leading eight smartphone brands globally. Samsung, being the worldwide market leader and a significant memory provider, gains an advantage from its vertical integration, thus anticipating a less severe production drop compared to Chinese brands. Despite this, overall volumes are still expected to decrease due to subdued market conditions.
Apple, sharing the leading market spot, is in a relatively stronger position to absorb increased memory expenses, attributed to its larger share of premium models. Furthermore, its customer base exhibits a higher acceptance of price hikes, offering some support for maintaining stable production.
Conversely, Xiaomi and Transsion, heavily dependent on entry-level devices, are more susceptible to fluctuating costs. Their price-sensitive consumer markets offer little flexibility to transfer increased expenses, making them more prone to substantial reductions in production for 2026 should memory prices stay high.
Brands primarily targeting the Chinese market, including vivo, OPPO, Xiaomi, and Honor, are encountering heightened competition from Huawei, alongside the challenge of increasing memory costs. Huawei is concentrating on expanding its HarmonyOS ecosystem and employs comparatively adaptable pricing approaches. This, coupled with its distinct market standing and robust brand loyalty within China, is projected to place considerable strain on the market share and production output of other local brands.
According to present forecasts, TrendForce anticipates that Huawei will probably undergo the least significant production adjustment in the pessimistic scenario, and might even achieve growth contrary to the general market trend.
TrendForce concludes that although the present market decline is initiated by increasing memory prices, more profound structural elements are also contributing. Modern smartphones already provide adequate functionality for most consumers’ everyday requirements, leading to extended replacement cycles and diminished motivation for upgrades. Even if memory prices stabilize eventually, this fundamental change in demand is improbable to reverse in the immediate future.
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About TrendForce
TrendForce stands as a global leader in providing analysis and consulting services for the technology industry. With extensive expertise covering foundry, DRAM, HBM, NAND Flash, AI servers, robotics, near-eye displays, display panels, LEDs, MLCC, and green energy, it also offers in-depth research into crucial market drivers such as AI, automotive technologies, 5G/6G communications, LEO satellites, and the IoT.
Supported by a team of leading industry professionals, TrendForce has been at the forefront of global market research for over 25 years. Over 60% of its clientele are among the world’s top 500 corporations. TrendForce’s international presence includes offices in Taipei, Shenzhen, Silicon Valley, New York, and Tokyo. Through timely and strategic industry analysis, TrendForce delivers essential information that enables businesses to make more informed and quicker decisions.
