Black Market Gambling Ads Threaten Licensed Brands by 2028

(AsiaGameHub) –   WARC has provided new data supporting a trend that UK gambling organizations have been highlighting for several months. Recent research indicates that unregulated operators are projected to equal and subsequently surpass licensed brands in advertising expenditure, with this shift anticipated by 2028.

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Good to Know

• WARC forecasts that advertising spending by unlicensed gambling entities will increase from £844.7 million between 2025 and 2026 to exceed £1 billion by 2028.
• Advertising expenditure by regulated operators is predicted to decrease to £1.022 billion in the 2026 to 2027 period.
• Sponsorship dominance could reverse earlier, with unregulated brands expected to capture over half of that market share by 2026 to 2027.

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Unlicensed Gambling Ad Budgets Continue to Grow in the UK

By 2028, black market gambling entities might be allocating more funds to UK advertising than their licensed counterparts. This constitutes the primary conclusion of WARC research released on April 21, preceding a Westminster Hall debate where Members of Parliament are scheduled to examine gambling advertising and the impact of regulatory changes on the sector.

The projection indicates a rapid ascent for unregulated operators. WARC anticipates their advertising expenditure will increase from £844.7 million in 2025-2026 to £934.2 million in 2026-2027, subsequently exceeding £1 billion by 2028. Conversely, licensed operators are experiencing a decline. WARC predicts their budgets will decrease by 9.2% in 2025-2026, followed by an additional 2.6% reduction to £1.022 billion in 2026-2027.

WARC characterized the market as bifurcated. In its official statement, the organization noted:

“Although advertising spending within the UK’s gambling industry is projected to reach £1.9 billion this year, WARC research has identified a dual-speed market dynamic, where nearly all expansion is now being propelled by unregulated companies. These operators are primarily located internationally and are investing progressively larger sums to engage UK consumers through online search and social media platforms.”

This divergence is even more pronounced in sponsorship. WARC anticipates that unregulated operators will command over half of gambling sponsorship expenditure as soon as 2026-2027. Overall sponsorship investment has risen from £158 million in 2019-2020 to an estimated £260 million in 2026-2027, whereas the proportion held by licensed companies reached its peak in 2021-2022 and has declined thereafter.

The Betting and Gaming Council leveraged the report to caution that licensed businesses are losing their competitive edge with consumers. Chief executive Grainne Hurst described the findings as a pivotal moment, stating that this trend ought to concern legislators. She remarked:

“The crucial inquiry is whether advertising originates from regulated operators, who adhere to stringent standards, or from the detrimental, illicit black market, which functions completely beyond legal frameworks.”

Hurst further contended that imposing additional restrictions on licensed operators would merely benefit illegal brands:

“Focusing on licensed operators when their advertising expenditure is already decreasing will not diminish overall advertising; instead, it will only strengthen the damaging illegal black market, which is actively pursuing UK customers. The government needs to act more decisively and swiftly to suppress the black market before it becomes irreversible.”

Licensed companies have been facing increasing pressure from multiple sources. Remote Gaming Duty increased from 21% to 40% on April 1. Remote Betting Duty is also scheduled to increase from 15% to 25% starting April 2027. In November 2025, the Office for Budget Responsibility projected that these tax adjustments would divert approximately £500 million in gambling activity to the black market, simultaneously reducing revenue due to demand substitution and price pass-through. Furthermore, the debate surrounding affordability checks persists, with the BGC reiterating that stricter checks could compel more consumers toward unregulated platforms.