OTTAWA – Despite never holding an elected position, Mark Carney has long been considered a potential future leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. Current polling data suggests he is likely to win the party’s leadership contest this Sunday.
Carney, who previously served as governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England and held an executive position at Goldman Sachs, is widely expected to succeed as the 14th leader of the Liberal Party and the 24th Prime Minister of Canada, as decided by the party’s approximately 400,000 members.
Carney recently responded to American tariffs imposed on Canada by labeling President Donald Trump a “bully.” He stated, “Canada will not succumb to bullying. We will not stand idly by while illegal U.S. tariffs harm our workers and their families. As Canadians, we must confront this challenge as a unified team.”
Carney likened Trump to Voldemort from the Harry Potter series in response to the president’s suggestions of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state.
“Considering the implications of these ridiculous and insulting comments from the president, regarding what we could become, I view them as Voldemort-like… I won’t even repeat it, but you understand what I’m referring to.”
More than half of the Liberal Party’s 153 members in the House of Commons have endorsed Carney for leader, choosing him over former Cabinet ministers Chrystia Freeland and Karina Gould, as well as former MP Frank Baylis, all of whom served in Trudeau’s government.
In terms of fundraising, Carney has garnered the most campaign contributions, with $1.3 million, which is more than double the amount raised by Freeland, the former foreign affairs minister, last month.
Polls indicate that Carney is the leading candidate to become the next Liberal leader. If he secures the position and subsequently becomes Prime Minister of Canada as Trudeau’s successor, it is anticipated to improve the party’s electoral prospects.
A survey conducted by the Angus Reid Institute, released on March 5, revealed that a Liberal Party led by Carney was only three points behind the Conservative Party, the official opposition, with 37% support compared to 40%.
A Leger poll, published on March 3, showed a slightly larger gap, with the Conservatives at 41% and the Liberals, under Carney’s leadership, at 33%.
However, the same Angus Reid poll also found that 43% of Canadians believe Carney would be the most suitable Prime Minister to handle Trump, compared to , who was favored by 34%.
Even Poilievre has acknowledged Carney as the likely frontrunner in the Liberal race for the next general election, often referring to him as “Carbon Tax Carney” in reference to the Canadian government’s carbon tax, which Carney initially supported. During his leadership campaign, Carney stated that he would replace the tax with an incentive program that rewards Canadians for “making greener choices,” like buying energy-efficient appliances.
In an open letter to Carney on January 26, Poilievre questioned whether he would “differ from the man you are trying to replace” and if he would commit to “excluding any former Trudeau minister from your Cabinet” or “pursue the same Trudeau agenda?”
Norman Spector, who previously served as chief of staff to former Progressive Conservative Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, believes Carney’s lack of political experience could be beneficial when dealing with the White House.
“He doesn’t start with any negative history with Trump, which I believe is very important,” Spector said. He suggested that Carney should meet with the president promptly to discuss areas of potential collaboration between Canada and the U.S., such as continental security.
Carney must avoid appearing as merely “Justin Trudeau with a different resume,” John Manley, a former Canadian Liberal deputy prime minister and finance minister, told Digital.
“He needs to present himself as a candidate for change and project the image of a serious individual capable of challenging Donald Trump,” while pointing out that the key issue in Canadian elections has shifted from Trudeau’s unpopularity in Canada to Trump.
Manley, no longer a member of the Liberal Party, stated that Carney has “pledged to move the party back towards the center and prioritize the economy, which would be a welcome change.”
Last Wednesday, Carney announced his intention to remove domestic trade barriers between the 10 provinces and three territories, a move that could potentially boost the Canadian economy by up to $140 billion.
On the same day, Trudeau and the provincial and territorial premiers agreed to take similar steps to reduce reliance on trade with the U.S. in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs on Canada.
Manley argued that the Liberals “must stop concentrating on identity politics,” which he believes is only “relevant to a small group of individuals.”
“We cannot continue fighting cultural wars. It significantly damaged the .”
He also suggested that Carney should call a general election quickly, before Parliament is scheduled to reconvene on March 24.
If Carney becomes Liberal leader on Sunday, he would automatically become the prime minister-designate, as the Liberals currently hold the government under Trudeau.
The official date for Carney to assume office has yet to be determined. He would be the first Canadian prime minister to have never held an elected position and would need to win a seat in the House of Commons. Therefore, a national vote is necessary both for the country and for Carney to secure a seat in Parliament by running in a yet-to-be-decided electoral district.
Manley, who competed for the Liberal leadership in 2003 but lost to former prime minister Paul Martin, emphasized that Carney will require fresh faces in his Cabinet.
He also believes that Carney, a Harvard and Oxford universities graduate with a doctorate in economics, has an advantage over Poilievre in the upcoming election.
Born in Canada’s Northwest Territories, the 59-year-old Carney also spent many years as a Goldman Sachs executive and served as the United Nations special envoy for climate action and finance.
In contrast, Manley stated that the 45-year-old Poilievre has “dedicated his entire adult life to politics.”
The opposition leader was first elected as a Conservative MP for an Ottawa district in 2004 at the age of 24.
However, Manley added, “Poilievre is a very effective communicator,” and Carney must “demonstrate his ability to connect with the average person.”
“Can he appeal to the people who elect governments, many of whom may not read books or even newspapers?”
“Being a successful politician today requires a different set of skills than it did even in my time,” he concluded.
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