India strengthens diplomatic ties with the Taliban as Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan wanes “`

India and Afghanistan have significantly advanced their diplomatic ties, highlighted by a recent meeting in Dubai between Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Afghanistan’s acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi. This high-level engagement, the second in two months, marks the strongest bilateral interaction since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover.

While India’s engagement with the Taliban has been growing, this meeting signifies a substantial escalation. According to Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center, this increased engagement predates recent tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan.

During the meeting, Misri emphasized the long-standing friendship and people-to-people connections between the two nations, sentiments echoed by Muttaqi, who described India as a key regional economic player.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated that discussions focused on strengthening bilateral ties, security concerns, development projects, and humanitarian aid. India, already providing substantial trade, aid, and medical support to Afghanistan and hosting Afghan refugees, pledged further material support for their repatriation.

Kugelman explained that India’s outreach aims to better secure its strategic interests in Afghanistan, including trade, connectivity, and counter-terrorism efforts.

The talks also addressed boosting trade via the Chabahar Port in Iran, offering landlocked Afghanistan an alternative to Pakistan’s ports.

This increased engagement with the Taliban could strain India’s relationship with Pakistan, given their history of conflict and the current deterioration of relations between Pakistan and the Taliban, marked by escalating cross-border violence.

The meeting followed India’s condemnation of recent Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan that resulted in numerous civilian casualties. Pakistan claimed the strikes targeted Pakistani Taliban militants operating from Afghan territory, a claim Kabul denies.

The diplomatic progress also builds upon the Taliban’s appointment of an acting consul in Bombay and a prior visit by an Indian Ministry of External Affairs official to Kabul. Although the Taliban administration lacks formal international recognition, India reopened its Kabul embassy within a year of the Taliban’s return to power.

Kugelman noted that Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban has significantly weakened, and India may be filling the resulting void—a development detrimental to Pakistan.

Beyond Pakistan’s strained relationship with the Taliban, other factors may have influenced India’s decision. Reduced US influence in the region, Russia’s move toward recognizing the Taliban government, and China’s growing ties with the Taliban all played a role. The potential return of a Trump administration, given its role in the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, also likely factored into India’s strategy.

In contrast to the US, which maintains sanctions and severed diplomatic ties with the Taliban, other regional nations are now reassessing their approaches in light of the potential shift in US policy.