JERUSALEM—According to a leading expert, the combination of President-elect Donald Trump’s anticipated reinstatement of maximum pressure tactics and Iran’s persistent natural gas shortage could be the decisive factor in overthrowing what is widely considered the world’s most significant state sponsor of terrorism.
“This gas shortage in Iran is extremely significant, highlighting the regime’s increasing vulnerabilities on multiple fronts. From the defeats suffered by Hezbollah and Hamas in their conflicts with Israel, to the losses of the Houthis in Yemen and the weakening of the Syrian regime under Assad, we see a consistent decline in the regime’s influence,” Lisa Daftari, an Iran expert and editor-in-chief of The Foreign Desk, told Digital.
She added, “Couple this with the plummeting value of the Rial and the shocking mismanagement of resources, despite the easing of sanctions and the billions provided through unfair deals under Biden’s administration—it’s unsurprising that the regime is under immense pressure.”
“With President Trump likely to adopt a more assertive leadership style, the Iranian people may find themselves in a situation conducive to demanding regime change,” Daftari stated.
Widespread power outages and severe household gas shortages have significantly impacted Iran’s leadership. The ruling elite are acutely concerned about potential social and political unrest and are quick to resort to violence to suppress mass dissent.
Nationwide protests sparked by fuel price hikes and the violent repression of women for improper hijab observance rocked the Tehran regime in 2019 and 2022.
In 2019, Digital reported that the Iranian regime killed at least 106 people protesting fuel price increases. Three years later, in 2022, the regime’s notorious morality police murdered Masha Amini, a young woman, for failing to properly cover her hair. The 2022 protests evolved into widespread calls for the dissolution of the Islamic Republic.
According to a Tuesday report in the London-based Iran International news organization, Iran’s judiciary chief issued a directive to prevent unrest stemming from power and gas outages.
Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei, the head of Iran’s judiciary, reportedly stated, “The Attorney General and prosecutors nationwide, in close collaboration with intelligence, security, and law enforcement agencies, must take all necessary measures to maintain and strengthen public security and, as before, and with even greater resolve, take the necessary steps to neutralize the enemy’s attempts to create insecurity…”
Despite Iran’s substantial natural gas and oil reserves, years of underinvestment, economic mismanagement, corruption, and sanctions have left the energy sector unprepared for seasonal demands.
The Islamic Republic has also provided significant financial support to its terrorist proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas in Gaza, over the years. Matthew Levitt, a counter-terrorism expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, estimates that Iran provides approximately $700 million to $1 billion annually to Hezbollah, while Hamas receives roughly $100 million a year.
On December 18, the Iranian rial reached its lowest value ever, losing over 10% of its value since Trump’s November presidential election victory, indicating new challenges for Tehran amidst ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts.
Iran’s Central Bank has previously attempted to stabilize the exchange rate by injecting the market with more hard currencies.
The currency plummeted as Iran ordered the closure of schools, universities, and government offices on Wednesday due to a worsening energy crisis exacerbated by harsh winter conditions. This crisis follows a summer of blackouts and is now compounded by severe cold, snow, and air pollution.