Exit polls in Ireland suggest a likely coalition government formed by the incumbent center-right parties, although vote counting continues and Sinn Féin remains a contender.
According to an Ipsos B&A poll of 5,018 voters, Fine Gael received 21% of first-preference votes, and Fianna Fáil secured 19.5%.
To command a majority in the 174-seat Dáil, these two parties, previously in coalition, require the support of smaller parties or independents.
The poll indicates Sinn Féin garnered 21.1% support, with a margin of error of ±1.4 percentage points.
The center-right parties haven’t yet reached the 88 seats needed for a majority, and coalition negotiations could last weeks, coinciding with the return of President-elect Trump.
Sinn Féin, despite winning the popular vote in 2020, was excluded from government due to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s opposition to its policies and historical ties to the IRA.
While Sinn Féin could become the largest party, forming a government might prove difficult given the refusal of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to cooperate.
Former Trinity College Dublin professor Michael Gallagher estimates Fianna Fáil could win around 48 seats and Fine Gael 39, nearing the majority threshold.
Potential coalition partners for the center-right parties include the center-left Labour and Social Democrats, each projected to gain eight seats, according to Reuters.
A Sinn Féin-led government would significantly alter Irish politics, potentially leading to a reunification referendum. Party leader Mary Lou McDonald declared Sinn Féin has broken the traditional two-party system.
“Two-party politics is now gone. It’s consigned to the dustbin of history, and that in itself is very significant,” she stated, adding, “The question now arises for us, what do we do with that?”
The poll provides an indication, not a definitive prediction of the next government. Ireland’s proportional representation system means final results will take time.
The high cost of living, particularly the housing crisis, dominated the three-week campaign in this nation of 5.4 million, marked by emigration.
The election results will reveal whether Ireland deviates from global trends after years of pandemic, instability, and economic pressures.
Analysts initially predicted another Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil coalition, a scenario that remains plausible. Current Taoiseach Simon Harris of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin are frontrunners for the premiership, despite their parties’ relatively modest performances.
Fine Gael candidate Paschal Donohoe described the election as one where “the center held.”
“The big picture is, at a time in which incumbent governments all over Europe are struggling to get re-elected, the two larger parties within this government, in particular Fine Gael, are going to deliver a very strong performance,” he said.
The Green Party, previously holding 12 seats, anticipates a disappointing outcome.
Among independent candidates is Gerry “the Monk” Hutch, who has gained support after being granted bail on money-laundering charges.
Early results suggest a possibility of him winning a Dublin seat.
Reuters and