South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) said on Friday that North Korea has dispatched troops to support Russia’s war against Ukraine. If confirmed, this move would make North Korea the third country involved in the war and further escalate tensions between North Korea and the West.
The South Korean announcement came a day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his government has intelligence indicating that 10,000 North Korean troops are being prepared to join Russian forces fighting against Ukraine.
The NIS stated that Russian navy ships transported 1,500 North Korean special operation forces to the Russian port city of Vladivostok between October 8 and 13. The NIS added that more North Korean troops are expected to be sent to Russia soon.
The NIS claimed that the North Korean soldiers deployed in Russia have been given Russian military uniforms, weapons, and forged identification documents. They are currently stationed at military bases in Vladivostok and other Russian locations like Ussuriysk, Khabarovsk, and Blagoveshchensk. The NIS believes they will likely be deployed to battlefields after completing their adaptation training.
The NIS posted satellite and other photographs on its website, showing what it claims are Russian navy ship movements near a North Korean port and suspected North Korean mass gatherings in Ussuriysk and Khabarovsk within the past week.
South Korean media, citing the NIS, reported that North Korea has decided to send a total of 12,000 troops, organized into four brigades, to Russia. The NIS stated it could not confirm these reports.
The NIS has a mixed track record in assessing developments in North Korea, one of the world’s most secretive countries. If confirmed, this move would mark North Korea’s first major participation in a foreign war. North Korea has 1.2 million troops, one of the largest standing militaries globally, but it hasn’t engaged in large-scale conflicts since the 1950-53 Korean War.
When asked about the NIS findings, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said, “At this moment, our official position is that we cannot confirm reports that North Koreans are actively now as soldiers engaged in the war effort, but that may change.”
Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters on Thursday that the U.S. couldn’t confirm or corroborate media reports about the North Korean troop deployment to Russia.
Russia has previously denied using North Korean troops in the war, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov calling the claims “another piece of fake news” during a press conference last week. North Korea’s state media has not commented on the issue.
North Korea and Russia, both locked in separate confrontations with the West, have significantly strengthened their cooperation over the past two years. The U.S., South Korea, and their partners have accused North Korea of supplying artillery shells, missiles, and other conventional weapons to Russia to support its war in Ukraine in exchange for economic and military assistance. In June, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an agreement stipulating mutual military assistance if either country is attacked.
Many experts question how much the North Korean troop deployment would benefit Russia, citing North Korea’s outdated equipment and lack of combat experience. They suggest that North Korea likely received Russian promises to provide it with high-tech weapons technology related to its nuclear and missile programs, a move that will complicate U.S. and South Korean efforts to neutralize North Korea’s nuclear threats.
“Diplomatically, Pyongyang would be sacrificing its relations with European countries for the foreseeable future. The quid pro quo in terms of Russian military technology provided to the Kim regime could be significant enough to threaten South Korea’s security,” said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Hong Min, an analyst at Seoul’s Korea Institute for National Unification, believes Russia has likely offered technology transfers related to intercontinental ballistic missiles, nuclear-powered submarines, and surface-to-air defense systems that would enhance North Korea’s deterrent posture against U.S. and South Korean forces.
Hong stated that Kim may also view the troop deployment as a crucial opportunity to expose his soldiers to modern weapons technology and warfare and test their combat capabilities.
Earlier on Friday, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol convened an emergency security meeting to discuss the implications of the North Korean troop deployment. Meeting participants agreed that North Korea’s troop deployment poses “a grave security threat” to South Korea and the international community, according to Yoon’s office.
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have escalated in recent years, with Kim significantly increasing the pace of provocative missile tests and openly threatening to use nuclear weapons preemptively. South Korea and the U.S. have responded by expanding their military exercises, which North Korea perceives as invasion rehearsals.
On Thursday, Zelenskyy warned that a third nation entering the hostilities could transform the conflict into a “world war.”
“From our intelligence we’ve got information that North Korea sent tactical personnel and officers to Ukraine,” Zelenskyy told reporters at NATO headquarters. “They are preparing on their land 10,000 soldiers, but they didn’t move them already to Ukraine or to Russia.”
Ukrainian media reported earlier this month that six North Koreans were among those killed after a Ukrainian missile strike in the partially occupied eastern Donetsk region on October 3.
Many experts were initially skeptical about potential North Korean troop deployments to Russian-Ukrainian battlefields because North Korea is preoccupied with its nuclear standoff with the U.S. and South Korea.
North Korea sent pilots to fight for North Vietnam during the Vietnam War and for Egypt during the Yom Kippur War in 1973, but there have been no known large-scale deployments of its ground troops overseas.
There have been speculations that North Korea has likely sent military technicians and engineers to support Russia’s use of North Korean weapons and learn their wartime performances.
Easley, the professor, said “it would be surprising if Pyongyang deployed thousands of soldiers to fight as hired mercenaries.” However, he added that North Korea could have sent construction workers, technicians, engineers, and military intelligence officers to Russian-controlled enclaves.