OTTAWA, Canada — New tariffs took effect Tuesday, and analysts suggest that these tariffs are a contributing factor if the Liberal Party of Canada remains in power.
Since Donald Trump took office, the Conservative Party, the official opposition, has seen its lead over the ruling Liberals in public opinion polls diminish.
A poll released last week showed the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives by two points for the first time since the 2021 federal election, with 38% support compared to the Conservatives’ 36%. Just six weeks prior, the Conservatives held a 26-point lead. A general election is anticipated as early as this spring, initiated by Justin Trudeau’s successor, who will be announced on Sunday.
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, stated that he has never witnessed such a swift and dramatic decline for a party in his 40 years of polling.
He attributes the Conservatives’ decline to two main reasons.
The first is that Justin Trudeau, whose personal approval has significantly decreased since becoming Prime Minister in 2015, will step down as Liberal Party leader and Prime Minister on March 9. “And the threat from Trump to use economic force on Canada to bend us to his knee and possibly absorb us as a 51st state,” Bricker explained, referring to the planned tariffs and repeated suggestions of annexation.
Throughout February, Nanos Research observed the gap narrowing between the Liberals and Conservatives, who just a month earlier were positioned to form a “super-majority” government with potentially 240 members of Parliament (MPs) in the expanded 343-seat House of Commons, set to take effect after the upcoming election.
“That’s completely out the window now,” said Nik Nanos, founder and chief data scientist of the Canadian polling firm. He also believes Trudeau’s upcoming departure and Trump’s rhetoric against Canada have boosted the Liberals in the polls.
Nanos stated that the president “has effectively changed the ballot question from: Is it time for a change? – which was bad news for the Liberals – to who can best deal with Donald Trump, the new existential threat to the Canadian economy?”
He further explained that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and his party contributed to the Liberals’ rise by “showing they were a little out of touch” by concentrating on the carbon tax and promising to eliminate it, while Canadians were increasingly worried about Trump’s threats.
“In hindsight, when the Conservatives had a 27-point advantage in our polling, it didn’t have anything to do with Pierre Poilievre being strong or liked, or the Conservatives being brilliant strategists,” said Nanos. “It all had to do with dislike of Justin Trudeau and people wanting change and the Conservatives being the agent of change.”
According to the Ipsos poll, 86% of the 1,000 respondents indicated they want an “immediate” general election to establish a federal government “with a strong mandate” to address Trump’s tariff threat.
Bricker suggested that the Liberals’ lead in the polls, particularly in Ontario and Quebec, could further increase if , the former governor of the central banks of England and Canada and the leading candidate in the Liberal leadership race, succeeds Trudeau as prime minister.
Veteran pollster Angus Reid stated that his company’s latest poll revealed that 51% believe Carney and the Liberals are best equipped to improve relations with the U.S., specifically regarding tariffs, compared to 35% who favored the , who is perceived by many Canadians as advocating a “Trump-light agenda.”
Reid, founder and chair of the Angus Reid Institute, explained that the president from south of the border has “eroded Conservative support because it completely changed the political dynamic in Canada, completely changed what could be considered the most important ballot question that was all about getting rid of some of the baggage from the Trudeau era.”
“Now it’s one of defending the sovereignty and economy of the country.”
Another Angus Reid poll indicated that with Carney as leader, the Liberals are virtually tied with the Conservatives in voting intentions, at 44% and 45%, respectively. In Quebec, a Liberal Party led by Carney enjoys 31% support compared to the Conservatives’ 22%.
Reid noted that the annexation and tariffs issue resonates most strongly with Quebecers compared to other regions in Canada.
Nanos added that Carney’s additional challenge for Poilievre is that he “on paper, looks like a Conservative.”
“The guy worked in the banking sector and the private sector, like Goldman Sachs, and chaired, until recently, large enterprises like Bloomberg and Brookfield [Asset Management]. He walks and talks like a Conservative.”
Carney, an Oxford-educated economist with no prior elected office experience, is expected to call a snap election if chosen to succeed Trudeau.
Reid added that if the polling numbers continue to favor the Liberals, they could not only win the national vote but also secure a majority government.
The Liberals currently hold 153 seats in the 338-seat House of Commons, forming a minority government.