Ukraine’s population has shrunk by 10 million, or roughly a quarter, since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. This decline is attributed to the exodus of refugees, plummeting fertility rates, and war-related deaths, according to the United Nations.
Speaking at a Geneva press conference, Florence Bauer, the head of Eastern Europe at the U.N. Population Fund, stated that the invasion in February 2022 has exacerbated an already challenging demographic situation in Ukraine.
“The birth rate has plummeted and is currently around one child per woman, one of the lowest rates globally,” she said. A fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is needed to maintain a stable population.
Ukraine, with a population exceeding 50 million at the time of its independence in 1991, has experienced a significant population decline, mirroring the trend in many of its Eastern European and Central Asian neighbors. In 2021, the year before Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s population stood at approximately 40 million.
Bauer emphasized that a precise assessment of the war’s impact on Ukraine’s population will have to wait until after the conflict ends, allowing for a complete census.
The immediate impact is evident in regions that have been virtually depopulated, with villages inhabited solely by elderly residents and couples struggling to start families, she explained.
Russia, with a pre-war population exceeding 140 million, has also witnessed a deterioration of its already dire demographic situation since its invasion of Ukraine. The country recorded its lowest birth rate since 1999 in the first six months of this year, a rate described as “catastrophic.”
The majority of Ukraine’s population decline is attributed to the 6.7 million refugees currently residing abroad, primarily in Europe. War deaths have also contributed to the decline.
“Exact figures are difficult to obtain, but estimates suggest tens of thousands of casualties,” she said.