President Trump recently stated that the Iran situation is becoming “dangerous” and announced potential talks with Iran.
While the outcome of these talks is uncertain, experts are warning that the window of opportunity to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon is closing, along with the chance to use “snapback” sanctions to address Iran’s disregard for international law.
Gabriel Noronha, an Iran expert from the Jewish Institute for National Security of America and former State Department advisor, explained that snapback sanctions offer a unique chance to impose new sanctions on Iran without needing the approval of Russia or China.
The ability to implement snapback sanctions expires on Oct. 18, 2025, coinciding with Iran’s turn to preside over the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for a month.
Snapback sanctions were established under UNSC Resolution 2231, which was agreed upon shortly after the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to ensure that strict international sanctions could be quickly reimposed if Iran violated the agreement.
The JCPOA is largely considered defunct after the U.S. withdrew in 2018 and Iran subsequently violated the agreement’s terms.
This has led to a rapid expansion of Iran’s nuclear program, with the U.N. nuclear watchdog reporting earlier this year that Iran has accumulated enough near-weapons-grade uranium to produce a nuclear weapon if it were further enriched.
For years, European nations have hesitated to enact snapback sanctions, hoping to encourage Iran to negotiate a diplomatic solution to its nuclear program.
While any JCPOA participant can trigger snapback sanctions if Iran violates the agreement, the U.S. is considered ineligible by the U.N. and other JCPOA members due to its withdrawal from the agreement.
However, as Iran continues to advance its nuclear program, European leaders are expressing increasing frustration.
The French foreign minister recently suggested that military intervention might be “almost inevitable” if Iran doesn’t agree to a nuclear deal and halt its program.
“Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons,” Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said.
“Our priority is to reach an agreement that verifiably and durably constrains the Iranian nuclear program,” he added.
It is uncertain how much longer European nations will pursue discussions with Iran, as Trump has expressed impatience and threatened military action, even while signaling a willingness to negotiate with Tehran.
Noronha stressed that with France holding the UNSC presidency in April and the potential for Russian obstruction, UNSC members who want to block Iran’s nuclear program must act quickly to invoke snapback sanctions.
“It takes about six weeks to actually be implemented properly,” said Noronha. “And second, because the distribution of the presidencies and leadership of the U.N. Security Council is weighted towards more favorable leaders right now in the spring before it goes to pretty adversarial leadership in the summer and fall.”
The expert noted that the UNSC is currently divided between the U.S., U.K., and France on one side and Russia and China on the other, making it difficult to achieve major geopolitical victories.
A single veto can block a resolution, and progress in the council has stalled since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
However, even if Russia opposes reimposing sanctions on Iran, its ability to block the snapback mechanism is limited, provided that at least one other nation calls for its use.
“This is the only time this has ever happened at the U.N. before,” Noronha said. “They basically said, when we invoke snapback, what it does is it says U.N. sanctions will automatically return unless there’s a vote by the council to unanimously allow sanctions relief to remain on the books.”
The snapback mechanism would legally compel all 15 UNSC member nations, including Russia, to reimpose sanctions on Iran.
If the snapback mechanism expires in October, the U.N.’s ability to counter Iran’s nuclear program will likely be constrained, as it is unlikely that new resolutions on the issue will pass the council given the current geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia.
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