JERUSALEM — The re-election of President Donald Trump on Wednesday is likely to result in a revised U.S. Middle East policy that will have a significant impact on Israel’s ongoing conflict with Iran-backed militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah, according to experts.
Digital reached out to prominent U.S. and Israeli experts on the Middle East to gather their perspectives on the implications of a second Trump term for the region’s ongoing instability and wars. For over a year, the Iranian regime has been actively supporting Hamas and Hezbollah in their conflicts against Israel. Tehran has also carried out two drone and missile attacks against Israel in 2024.
Caroline Glick, a U.S.-Israel Middle East specialist who served as an advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told Digital, “Trump’s policy of respecting the prerogatives of Israel’s democratically elected government will empower Prime Minister Netanyahu and his cabinet to pursue their strategy of achieving victory over Iran and its proxies to a successful conclusion. Israel does not seek direct U.S. involvement in the war. Instead, it hopes that the U.S. will provide it with diplomatic and other forms of support to enable it to achieve victory against common adversaries of the U.S. and Israel.”
Glick added, “The Trump doctrine of minimizing U.S. involvement in the Middle East is based on supporting America’s allies, primarily Israel, in their efforts to defeat their enemies, who are also America’s enemies. Trump’s support for an Israeli victory will allow the president to oversee a post-war period of stability and unprecedented peace, which is only achievable after an Israeli victory.”
The Biden administration has faced criticism for its handling of the war against Hamas after the jihadist movement killed nearly 1,200 people on , including over 40 Americans. Biden reportedly withheld vital weaponry at one point while Israel was engaged in its existential struggle.
Glick has been a vocal critic of the Biden-Harris administration and stated that “Iran continues to pursue nuclear weapons and engage in a seven-front war against Israel. The U.S. has protected Hamas’s regime in Gaza and Hezbollah’s control over Lebanon.”
Retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, founder of the Israel Defense and Security Forum, told Digital that “President Trump’s re-election presents a significant opportunity for the Middle East to dismantle the Shiite axis [the Islamic Republic of Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon] and restore security to the Middle East by signing peace agreements and creating a Western-Israel-Sunni alliance that will extend all the way to Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Oman.”
He added that peace and prosperity in the Middle East “requires addressing the . Israel’s expectation is to see the U.S. leading a coalition that will militarily confront Iran’s nuclear facilities and potentially even topple the regime and dismantle the Shiite axis that threatens all moderate states in the Middle East.”
Avivi said Israel has paved the way by defeating Hamas and is on the verge of defeating Hezbollah.
David Wurmser, a former senior advisor for nonproliferation and Middle East strategy for former Vice President Dick Cheney, told Digital, “The election of Trump will have a significant impact on Middle East policy. Iran and its proxies will feel profoundly threatened, but they will not give up. They cannot; it is a matter of regime survival for Iran.”
“Any Israeli hope held by some in Israel that the United States will now step in and join Israel in fighting this war, particularly against Iran itself, is a false hope,” Wurmser said. “Trump will allow Israel to do what it needs to do and protect it without reservation or restraint in doing so, but it will not do it for Israel.”
“Another area in which there will be substantial American involvement will be the formation of the Middle East peace structure that expands the Abraham Accords without pressuring Saudi Arabia or others to address the Palestinian issue,” he said.
Trump’s most notable first-term achievement in the Middle East was the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Middle East experts stated that if Trump had not lost to Biden in the 2020 election, he could have secured a major diplomatic recognition agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
According to Wurmser, “The incoming administration will represent a paradigm shift where a strong Israel and a weakened, besieged, and retreating Iran will advance a regional alliance that challenges Iran and China and abandons the of the Washington establishment as the guiding principle of policy.”
The Islamist government of Turkey’s strongman, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, will also likely face resistance from Trump. Erdoğan, who supports the U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hamas, in July to protect Palestinians. Erdoğan also provides material support to Hamas terrorists living in Turkey.
Efrat Aviv, a professor in the Department of General History at Bar-Ilan University in Israel and a leading expert on Turkey, told Digital that “Trump’s pro-Israel stance clashes with Erdoğan’s support for Hamas, which Turkey considers freedom fighters. Turkey’s alleged involvement in facilitating Hamas’s activities, including granting them passports and assisting in money laundering, further complicates relations.”
“Turkey found solace in Trump’s presidency, in contrast to Biden, who had criticized Erdoğan’s democratic backsliding, notably excluding Turkey from the 2021 Summit for Democracy,” Aviv added. “Under Trump, was released from Turkish custody. However, despite Trump’s generally favorable stance, tensions persist. Trump imposed sanctions on Turkey five times during his tenure, and key issues, such as U.S. support for Kurdish groups and Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, remain divisive.”
“Whether this marks the beginning of a new chapter or if tensions continue to overshadow their personal friendship remains to be seen,” noted Aviv.
There are skeptics who view Trump as shifting towards a policy that will pressure Israel into a possible premature end to the war to remove Hamas terrorists from the Gaza Strip and eliminate Hezbollah terrorists and facilities along its northern border.
Joel Rubin, a former deputy assistant secretary of state who served in the Obama administration, told Digital, “It’s an open question as to how a Trump 2.0 will operate in the Middle East. Unlike Trump 1.0, he has a much more isolationist VP in JD Vance, and he also at the same time told Netanyahu to finish up the war in Gaza. And while he has expressed an interest in a deal with Iran over its nuclear program, he has a history of taking aggressive actions against it, and his communications were targeted by the regime during his campaign, which may fuel distrust and suspicion.”
“But the fundamentals of his wanting to focus on domestic issues are what will likely drive his policy in the early days, while he works to avoid international entanglements,” Rubin added. “My bet is that if the Middle East flares into creating headaches for him, particularly through increasing wars, he will work to stamp them out while not having a very ambitious agenda towards resolving longstanding challenges between Israel and the Palestinians.”