(SeaPRwire) – By: Julian Holbrooke
Israel’s ongoing strikes on southern Lebanon aren’t just retaliation. They’re a deliberate erosion of any hope for a ceasefire, even as Tehran mouths support for Beirut and negotiators talk of a September meeting in Rome. The killing of 28-year-old Saja Sharara, just 48 hours after her wedding, lays bare the human cost of this charade. Official statements from both sides mask the real power plays unfolding on the ground.
Let’s start with the official narratives. Israel claims its Thursday strikes on Arab Salim were in response to two Hezbollah drones targeting its troops. Tehran says it’s working to revive the June US-Iran memorandum of understanding, whose first clause calls for an end to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. That MOU followed a February escalation, when Hezbollah resumed attacks two days after the US-Iran war began, citing retaliation for the killing of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. But look past the words. Israel currently occupies more than 600 square kilometers of Lebanese territory. Its Saturday airstrikes, artillery shelling, and home burnings in Nabatieh Province aren’t defensive. They’re a bid to consolidate control over that land, using Hezbollah’s limited actions as a convenient pretext to avoid withdrawal.
Now the other side of the story. Hezbollah says it’s abiding by the ceasefire outlined in the US-Iran agreement. Sheikh Ali al-Khatib of Lebanon’s Higher Shiite Islamic Council has appealed to Tehran for financial aid, noting displaced residents have exhausted savings and lost homes and work. But Iran’s support is more symbolic than tangible. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi acknowledges “circumstances are difficult” to implement the MOU, but that’s code for avoiding direct confrontation with the US. Tehran doesn’t want a full-scale war with Israel or the US. It’s using Lebanon’s crisis to maintain its proxy influence and rally regional Shiite support without risking its own territory.
The geopolitical pendulum is swinging toward prolonged low-intensity conflict. The Rome talks in September will yield nothing of substance. Israel will keep expanding its footprint in southern Lebanon. Iran will increase covert support to Hezbollah but stop short of direct intervention. Lebanon’s civilians will bear the brunt, trapped between two powers that care more about strategic gains than their survival.
Author bio: Julian Holbrooke, an overseas international relations analyst who contributes to major European daily newspapers, focuses on Middle East geopolitical dynamics.