Donald Trump’s electoral win has buoyed the hopes of Brazil’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro, who faces a ban from public office until 2030 due to a ruling by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court.
Dubbed the “Trump of the Tropics,” Bolsonaro’s ban stems from accusations of abusing his power and making unfounded attacks on Brazil’s electronic voting system.
Despite the ban, Bolsonaro and his allies are actively working to overturn the ruling. They are banking on Trump to pressure Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration, aiming for Bolsonaro’s presidential candidacy in 2026.
“Trump’s victory is not only positive for democracy in Brazil and the world; it’s good news for global peace,” Bolsonaro’s son, Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, stated to Digital.
He highlighted President Lula’s pre-election support for Kamala Harris and his subsequent description of a new Trump administration as “Nazism in another form,” noting Lula’s later congratulatory message to the president-elect and attempt to downplay his earlier remarks.
However, key Lula allies, including Workers’ Party leader Gleisi Hoffmann, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, and Agriculture Minister Paulo Teixeira, have criticized the incoming Trump administration.
Bolsonaro believes Trump’s win will create difficulties for the current government.
“Lula and his team know they can’t control Trump, so their only option is to try and undermine him by strengthening ties with China. This fuels political polarization and diverts attention from pressing issues like healthcare, education, security, employment, and sanitation. This detachment from citizen concerns mirrors the Democratic Party’s recent electoral defeat in the U.S. – it’s almost a case of déjà vu,” Bolsonaro asserted.
While BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have discussed reducing the dollar’s dominance in global finance, Bolsonaro contends this would be counterproductive.
“Trump announced on social media that countries taking this stance would face 100% tariffs on U.S. exports. This didn’t happen under Bolsonaro, regardless of whether Trump or Biden was president,” he said, adding, “This will significantly pressure Lula’s business base. Many of these entrepreneurs have substantial trade ties with the U.S. and are often major donors to the socialist’s electoral campaigns. Despite some ideological alignment, these businesspeople prioritize economic pragmatism.”
Bolsonaro also sees his ideological alignment with Trump on free speech as crucial to his political comeback.
In March 2022, Brazilian Supreme Federal Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered Telegram’s suspension in Brazil, and in 2024, he ordered X to block accounts allegedly spreading misinformation. Bolsonaro publicly criticized these actions as censorship. The ensuing dispute, involving fines and legal threats, led to X’s temporary suspension in Brazil before services resumed after compliance with court orders.
May 2024 polls suggested Bolsonaro would receive 39% of the vote against Lula’s 47% in a hypothetical matchup. However, experts deem these figures speculative due to Bolsonaro’s ineligibility. Despite this, Bolsonaro’s popularity has recently rebounded.
The relationship between some Republicans and Lula’s administration has been limited, primarily due to differing ideologies and policy priorities. Historically, the Republican Party has had closer ties with right-leaning Brazilian leaders, particularly Bolsonaro, sharing similar conservative views.
Political analyst Sandra Bronzina told Digital, “Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar recently sponsored a measure to deny visas to members of Lula’s administration for abuse of power. While previously rejected, this could be reconsidered with a Republican majority. We can’t forget that Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes clashed directly with Elon Musk, even removing X from Brazil. Now Elon Musk will be part of the Trump administration.”
Bronzina added, “Trump’s resounding win doesn’t bode well for Lula’s administration. Lula’s economic policies have been disastrous in a short time, the dollar has surged, inflation has risen, the national debt exceeds 9 trillion reals, impacting voters daily. Like in the U.S., where poor economic policies led to Trump’s return, Brazilians are missing Bolsonaro and his Economy Minister, Paulo Guedes.”
Analysts believe that while Bolsonaro has substantial support and is actively working to overturn his ban, his reelection chances remain uncertain due to legal obstacles.
“The Supreme Court disqualified Jair Bolsonaro unfairly…but the right will be strengthened now that Donald Trump’s victory has given the Brazilian right renewed hope for 2026. The 2024 elections favored right-wing candidates. Lula’s popularity is also very low, meaning the right has significant opportunities in 2026,” Congressman Marcel van Hattem told Digital.
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