Nicolás Maduro is set to begin a third term as Venezuelan president on January 10th, with his inauguration ceremony to be held by the ruling party’s congress. This follows a July 28th election widely criticized domestically and internationally for its lack of fairness and legitimacy.
The election, claimed by Maduro to have been won by over 1 million votes, is disputed. Opposition candidate Edmundo González is believed to have secured a landslide victory, a claim supported by the Carter Center, which observed the election at the Venezuelan government’s invitation, confirming the opposition’s published vote tallies.
“Maduro’s inauguration is a blatant disregard for the Venezuelan people’s votes, as evidenced by the published tally sheets,” stated Jason Marczak, vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.
Maduro’s continued rule will solidify his policies in a nation grappling with cronyism, hyperinflation, and food insecurity for over a decade.
Opposition groups have planned mass protests for the day before Maduro’s inauguration. However, the government’s repressive actions, including the arrest of over 2,000 individuals, have fostered a climate of fear. María Corina Machado, a prominent opposition leader, plans a public reappearance after a period in hiding, in a last attempt to challenge Maduro.
Edmundo González, recognized by the United States as the legitimately elected president, was compelled to seek refuge in Spain after a judicial order in September. He has recently re-entered the public sphere, embarking on an international tour to garner support for the Venezuelan opposition. This included a meeting with President Biden at the White House, described as “long, fruitful, and cordial,” and ongoing communication with President-elect Trump.
These meetings follow a $100,000 bounty offered by Venezuelan authorities for information leading to González’s arrest.
Maduro’s continued rule alongside a second Trump administration raises questions about the president-elect’s approach. Trump previously strongly criticized Maduro. However, Maduro has offered an olive branch, congratulating Trump on his re-election and suggesting a relationship built on “respect, common sense dialogue, and understanding.”
“Any negotiation between Trump and Maduro must prioritize the liberation of Venezuela,” cautioned Isaias Medina III, a former Venezuelan diplomat and Harvard fellow, adding that “Tren de Aragua, Maduro’s illegal immigration terrorist proxy army, threatens American security and regional stability through human trafficking, drug smuggling, and organized violence. Stronger sanctions and decisive action are crucial to counter this threat. Venezuelan freedom must remain the paramount goal.”
Some analysts doubt Trump will maintain the “maximum pressure” strategy from his first term, particularly given his focus on migration. An estimated 7.7 million Venezuelans have left the country since 2014.
“The incoming Trump administration will likely adopt a revised approach to Venezuela, learning from the previous ‘maximum pressure’ policy. Incoming National Security Advisor Rep. Mike Waltz co-sponsored the Bolivar Act to intensify pressure on Maduro and support the opposition, while Secretary of State nominee Sen. Marco Rubio was among the first to recognize Edmundo González as president-elect,” Marczak explained.
Recently, the Maduro regime has detained several foreign nationals, some with alleged espionage or terrorism charges, potentially as bargaining chips with the incoming Trump administration.