EU’s top diplomat: Suspicious underwater cable attacks by Russia and China are not coincidental

Recent attacks on underwater cables in the Baltic and South China Seas, allegedly perpetrated by Russia and China respectively, have raised serious concerns among top officials about their potential coordination.

Maritime sabotage incidents in these regions have increased in recent years, with a significant surge in the past few months, starting in November. Three separate attacks occurred within a short timeframe, leading to suspicion of both Russia and China’s involvement.

“The Kremlin has engaged in a sustained hybrid campaign against Europe, encompassing disinformation, cyberattacks, and weaponization of energy supplies. Since the Ukraine invasion, these efforts have intensified,” EU High Representative Kaja Kallas stated. “However, Russia is not our only concern.”

In November, two Baltic Sea cables were severed. Simultaneously, the Chinese-flagged vessel Yi Peng 3 was detained by Danish naval forces for investigation.

Having departed from the Russian port of Ust-Luga on November 15, the Yi Peng 3 was found to have dragged its anchor, damaging a Sweden-Lithuania cable on November 17 and a Finland-Germany cable on November 18.

This incident echoed a similar October 2023 event where the Chinese ship NewNew Polar Bear, while dragging anchor over 100 miles in the Gulf of Finland, damaged the Balticconnector gas pipeline and two telecommunications cables between Sweden and Estonia.

The pipeline damage highlighted the vulnerability of subsea infrastructure, especially in light of the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage the previous year.

By October 22, 2023, the NewNew Polar Bear was reported in the Russian port of Arkhangelsk, missing its port-side anchor.

European leaders quickly suspected sabotage in the November attack. The similarity between the two incidents was noted on X: “If I had a nickel for every time a Chinese ship was dragging its anchor on the bottom of the Baltic Sea near important cables I would have two nickels, which isn’t much, but it’s weird that it happened twice.”

While Beijing denies wrongdoing, targeting international undersea cables is a known Chinese tactic.

Taiwan is investigating a possible China-linked ship’s involvement in damaging one of its internet cables, prompting Taipei to implement protective measures against future attacks.

China’s tactics against Taiwan are now being replicated in the Baltic Sea. The EU has warned of China’s potential invasion of Taiwan by 2027.

“Chinese vessels are implicated in recent Baltic Sea cable damage, mirroring years of activity in the Taiwan Strait,” the EU’s top diplomat said. “Given China’s support for Russia in the Ukraine war, these incidents are hard to view as coincidental.”

“China is closely observing our response to Russia’s war. A strong US stance against Russia is crucial to prevent issues with China,” Kallas cautioned. “Supporting Ukraine today prevents future American military involvement.”

Russia is also suspected of cable sabotage.

A Russia-linked vessel is under investigation for damaging four telecommunications cables and the Finnish-Estonian Estlink 2 power cable on Christmas Day, allegedly by dragging its anchor.

The tanker Eagle S, potentially part of Russia’s “shadow fleet,” is suspected of involvement, enabling Russia to circumvent sanctions and maintain oil exports.

The Pentagon and White House haven’t commented on the connection between the attacks. Security experts, however, see little room for coincidence in international politics.

“Despite a lack of public proof of Chinese-Russian coordination, I don’t believe in coincidence in international affairs,” former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Heino Klinck stated. “Both actors operate in the gray zone, and these attacks appear mutually reinforcing, highlighting the inadequate international response.”

NATO will announce “Baltic Sentry,” deploying more ships, naval drones, and AI to improve detection and response to Baltic Sea attacks, a NATO spokesperson said.

NATO hasn’t commented on whether the attacks represent coordinated action between Russia and China. However, a Western security official, speaking anonymously, suggests the incidents weren’t accidental.

“It seems more coordinated than initially thought,” the official stated. “It’s not just accidental anchor dragging. This appears more planned and coordinated.”