As Germans prepare to vote on Sunday, Friedrich Merz and his conservative Christian Democrats are widely expected to replace the current chancellor. However, Merz has already stated that he will not govern in conjunction with the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
The German election has garnered attention from figures like Vice President JD Vance and Elon Musk. Musk has publicly supported the AfD, suggesting it is the best party to address Germany’s economic problems. These comments drew criticism from German politicians, with Chancellor Scholz accusing Musk of meddling in the election.
Following a recent stabbing in Munich, Musk reiterated his support on X, stating, “Only AfD can save Germany.”
Vance previously met with AfD leader Alice Weidel at the Munich Security Conference, where he criticized the German government’s policy of refusing to cooperate with the AfD.
Anna Hardage, a fellow in European Studies at the American Foreign Policy Council, explained that the main political parties in Germany have established a “firewall” that prevents them from endorsing, collaborating with, or supporting far-right parties like the AfD.
The AfD anticipates a record-breaking election performance, potentially doubling its vote count from 2021 and becoming Germany’s second-largest party.
If Merz and the CDU refuse to collaborate with the AfD, Germany could see a coalition of parties with limited shared priorities, unified mainly by their aversion to partnering with the AfD.
Hardage pointed out that even if the AfD is excluded from any governing coalition, its success in shaping public opinion will influence debates on the key issues facing Germany.
The AfD has capitalized on public following a series of violent incidents involving migrants. The party advocates for stricter immigration laws in response to the increasing number of migrants entering Germany and the EU due to global conflicts.
The economy, security, and immigration are central issues, and the AfD’s success stems from voters attributing these problems to the mistakes of past leaders. Rafael Loss, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, noted that Merz has shifted the CDU to the right on these issues to win back voters considering the AfD.
The AfD’s stance on ending the war in Ukraine might align with President Donald Trump’s views. The party has called for halting security assistance to Ukraine and lifting sanctions on Russia. However, Loss emphasized that transatlanticism is fundamental to the CDU’s identity, and Merz believes that Russia poses a significant threat to German and European security, prioritizing Ukraine’s victory.
This sentiment is echoed by Merz’s
Loss added that recent discussions among European leaders, including consultations with Merz, suggest that German and European support for Ukraine will likely increase rather than decrease.
Merz’s party has consistently led in polls for at least three years, typically showing a CDU lead of around 30%. The election follows the collapse of Chancellor Scholz’s “traffic light” coalition in November due to fiscal disagreements.
Economic challenges have also contributed to a decline in Scholz’s popularity, as his government has struggled to address post-pandemic inflation and economic stagnation.
The AfD has faced considerable criticism and controversy, leading to its surveillance by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency in 2021, which labeled it a group due to reported ties between some members and neo-Nazi groups. The party’s appeal against this designation was unsuccessful. Björn Höcke, a co-leader of the AfD in Thuringia and a prominent figure on the party’s extreme right wing, has been repeatedly convicted for using Nazi rhetoric and symbols.
Loss further noted that, at the state level, three of the 16 AfD state-level organizations are being considered as confirmed extremist groups, six are under surveillance as suspected extremist groups, and another one is under investigation.
Since 1949, Germany’s Constitutional Court has only banned two political parties: the Socialist Reich Party in 1952 and the Communist Party of Germany in 1956.