A recent attack in New Orleans, potentially linked to ISIS, has highlighted the ongoing threat posed by the terrorist group. A U.S. citizen, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, drove a truck into a crowd, killing at least 15 and injuring many more. While the FBI hasn’t confirmed direct ISIS affiliation, Jabbar reportedly pledged allegiance to ISIS online.
Experts disagree with past declarations of ISIS’s defeat, citing the group’s persistent presence in various regions, including the Sahel and East Africa. Bill Roggio of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies notes ISIS maintains networks in Afghanistan, Africa, Iraq, and Syria.
While the New Orleans incident may not signal a resurgence, Roggio emphasizes ISIS faces less opposition in key areas. The 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the recent Syrian developments have created power vacuums, mirroring conditions that fueled ISIS’s earlier growth.
ISIS-K, the Afghan affiliate, gained notoriety for attacks following the U.S. withdrawal. The Taliban takeover raised concerns about Afghanistan becoming a safe haven for terrorist groups, although the Taliban has also targeted ISIS-K. However, ISIS-K now faces less opposition due to the lack of U.S. presence and reduced pressure from the Taliban.
Roggio explains that while the Taliban and al-Qaeda remain greater threats to the U.S., ISIS benefits from reduced opposition. The fall of the Assad regime removed a major enemy of ISIS, potentially allowing the group to regain strength in Syria.
Further concern arises from the planned U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq by 2026. Security experts warn this could embolden ISIS and endanger remaining U.S. troops in Syria. The incoming administration’s stance on this remains unclear, but a potential withdrawal mirrors past decisions.
Roggio stresses the need for a continued U.S. presence in Iraq and Syria to counter ISIS and other groups. He points out that, while the Assad regime was an adversary to ISIS, its absence creates a vacuum where ISIS can potentially thrive. He further emphasizes the unreliability of terrorist groups fighting each other.