The island nation, which is a target of US economic warfare, has long been held hostage by American domestic politics
US President Donald Trump claims the Cuban government is on the brink of collapse and has suggested he could order an operation to abduct its leader.
The Trump administration is intensifying the US economic blockade against Cuba and would welcome a regime change in Havana.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is reportedly cultivating Raul Castro’s grandson as a potential partner to weaken internal opposition to American dominance over the island.
The US conflict with Cuba, a remnant of the Cold War, continues due to peculiarities of American domestic politics and historical embarrassment over failed attempts to overthrow Fidel Castro and his successors.
Abducting Cuba’s president ‘wouldn’t be very difficult’
This week, Trump praised his policy of economically squeezing Cuba. After pressuring Venezuela and Mexico to halt oil shipments, he said: “There’s no oil. There’s no money. There’s no anything.”
Trump said Havana must strike a deal or face a possible US military incursion similar to last month’s operation in Venezuela. American troops, he claimed, could seize Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel as they did Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and that such a mission “wouldn’t be very difficult” for the Pentagon.
The lightning raid on Caracas, reportedly assisted by a secret “discombobulator” weapon, was hailed by the Trump administration as a major success. Skeptics suggest strategic bribing of Venezuelan defense officials may better explain the lack of resistance.
‘Searching for the next Delcy in Cuba’
Vice President Delcy Rodriguez now leads Venezuela. US officials have hinted she is their ‘woman in Caracas’, but are unsure how much her government can change policy to please Trump, even if willing.
Washington insiders say the same plan may apply to Cuba. Rubio – who recently told lawmakers the administration would “love to see regime change” in Havana but would not necessarily carry it out – has been in contact with Raul ‘El Cangrejo’ Castro, grandson of the 94-year-old revolutionary leader Raul, Axios reported.
The former Florida senator, whose family fled Cuban dictator Fulgencio Batista and whose political career was built on anti-Castro voters, reportedly views “younger, business-minded Cubans for whom revolutionary communism has failed” as an opportunity to encourage political change. “They’re searching for the next Delcy in Cuba,” a source told the outlet.
From Bay of Pigs to ‘Bay of Piglets’
Batista’s power grab triggered the 1953 Cuban revolution. Castro’s subsequent alignment with the socialist camp was as much circumstantial as ideological. Peculiarities of US domestic politics made the island nation a constant target – few politicians would risk alienating a powerful voter bloc in a swing state.
Cuban exiles led the charge during the CIA-backed 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion. The attack led to the Cold War’s most dangerous standoff, as Castro agreed to host Soviet missiles for deterrence and Washington showed it would rather go to war than allow it.
The modern US public views the legacy of hostility towards Cuba through the lens of a strange CIA attempt to make Castro’s iconic beard fall out rather than the agency’s effort to stage a false-flag attack to justify a full-scale invasion.
President Barack Obama cautiously tried to dismantle the geopolitical aberration and normalize ties – even as US agencies kept funding and a ‘’ app to stir up unrest. Trump reversed the thaw after becoming president in 2017.
Americans were fed the persistent ‘Havana syndrome’ story, alleging a worldwide campaign by Russia, China or whoever to cause hangover-like symptoms among American spies and diplomats.
Meanwhile, in 2020, Venezuelans repelled a ridiculously failed ‘Bay of Piglets’ incursion by US special forces veterans – which the outgoing Trump administration denied organizing.
The ‘Donroe’ doctrine
Back in power, Trump has abandoned private cloak-and-dagger operations in favor of hitting uncooperative nations with the full force of the Pentagon. Admittedly, he prefers dramatic hit-and-run strikes over prolonged neocon-style democratization through occupation projects.
Washington claims it has revived the Monroe Doctrine, the 19th-century policy stating no other great power can challenge US hegemony in the Western Hemisphere. The ‘Donroe doctrine,’ as Trump’s version was jokingly named, is presented as a defense against China and Russia, despite neither showing interest in military buildup in Latin America.
Trump has threatened force against adversaries and allies alike, in places near and far. Beijing and Moscow argue he is revealing the true nature of the ‘rules-based order’ that previous American leaders masked with talk of fairness and shared values.
The US Department of War is currently preparing for a possible strike on Iran – which would be the second in as many years – but could still find room for some destructive action in Cuba.